Expected Value of Rate Cuts Drops
As we first outlined early last month, based on an analysis of the futures market for interest rate products, the expected value of the Fed’s rate cuts was suggesting there…
Benchmark Mortgage Rate Inches Down to 6.79 Percent
With the expected value of the Fed’s rate cuts holding at a total of three (3) quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, as we first calculated a few weeks ago and…
The Fed Affirms, Mortgage Rates Tick Up
As we first calculated a couple weeks ago, “the expected value of the Fed’s rate cuts this year has effectively held firm forecasting a total of three (3) quarter-point rate…
Benchmark Mortgage Rate Drops, Rate Cut Expectations Slip
The average rate for a benchmark 30 year mortgage dropped 14 basis points (0.14 percentage points) over the past week to 6.74 percent, which is still 14 basis points higher…
Benchmark Mortgage Rate Nears 7 Percent
Following a key trend that shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise, the average rate for a benchmark 30 year mortgage ticked up another 13 basis points (0.13 percentage points)…
Benchmark Mortgage Rate Ticks Up to 6.77 Percent
As we outlined last week, prior to a market shock that appears to have caught some by surprise, the expected value of the Fed’s interest rate cuts this year was…
Expected Value of Rate Cuts Tumbles, Mid-Six Rates Normalized
In a move that shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise, the probability of a rate cut this quarter, based on movements in the futures market, has dropped to under…
Benchmark Mortgage Rate “Stabilizing” Above 6 Percent
With the probability of a rate cut this quarter having dropped, the average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage has inched back up to 6.69 percent. At the same time,…
Mortgage Rates Inch Down, Probability of Q1 Cut Slips
Having inched up from 6.61 to 6.66 percent over the past two weeks, the average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage has since inched back down to 6.60 percent, which…
Mortgage Rates Inch Up
Having dropped to a six-month low of 6.61 percent at the end of 2023, the average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage has since inched up a (1) basis points…