As we first calculated a couple weeks ago, “the expected value of the Fed’s rate cuts this year has effectively held firm [for a few weeks,] forecasting a total of three (3) quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, which is roughly half the number of cuts that some were suggesting at the end of last year.”

And with the Fed having affirmed our calculations yesterday, and the futures market concurring, the average rate for a benchmark 30 year mortgage has ticked back up to 6.87 percent, which is 45 basis points higher than at the same time last year and 127 basis points higher than average over the past 30 years but 86 basis points below its long-term average of 7.73 percent, with the average rate for a 30-year Jumbo having ticked back up to 7.14 percent and the number of homes for sale in San Francisco (a.k.a. inventory) having just hit a 13-year seasonal high, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers, other than the most obstinate, by surprise.

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