As we outlined back in August:

Designed by Baran Studio Architecture and listed for “$849,000” in June of 2016, despite its nearly identical sister home with a yellow door having sold for $1.025 million the month prior, the sale of the modern West Oakland infill home at 864 Wood Street closed escrow with a contract price of $1.125 million that August, which was officially “33 percent over asking!” according to all industry stats and aggregate market reports.

The three-bedroom, three-bathroom home, which is located near West Oakland BART and offers “a straight shot down 7th Street to the Crucible, Orbit coffee and downtown Oakland,” measures nearly 2,300 square feet, with modern finishes, a “multitude of windows,” two private outdoor spaces and a large one-car garage.

And while the Bay Area Index for single-family home values is up 42 percent since August of 2016, 864 Wood Street has just returned to the market listed for “$899,000,” a sale at which would represent a 20 percent drop in value over the same period of time on an apples-to-apples basis while a sale at $1.125 million, the price at which it was purchased five years ago, would count as being “25 percent over asking!”

Yesterday, the sale of 864 Wood Street closed escrow with a contract price of $1,267,500, which was officially “41 Percent Over Asking!” according to all industry stats and aggregate reports (and likely a headline and postcard or two).

But having been purposefully underpriced, the sale represented actual appreciation of 12.6 percent over the past five years for the modern West Oakland home on an apples-to-apples basis or a “hot” 2.3 percent per year.  The widely misunderstood and misrepresented Case-Shiller index for Bay Area (“San Francisco”) home values was up 47.6 percent over the same period of time.

26 thoughts on “West Oakland Home Fetches “41 Percent Over Asking!” But…”
  1. These win for me if for no other reason than the setback. In a time when designing with other people (neighbors, neighborhoods, neighborliness) in mind is laughed at as irrelevant and insufficiently narcissistic and Ayn Randian, it’s great to see homes that are flush to the front side with those adjacent. Startling, but great.

    1. “Startling, but great” for no one that actually intends to live here beyond a year or two. Lacking any idea of identity, Its a dead cultural space. Just a resting point for soulless corporate drones.

    2. Except…Why the big flat parapet concealing the gable roof behind? It’s heavy and clumsy looking. It would have been a better fit with the gable expressed, as that is the character of houses on that block

  2. West oakland is such an unsual market, and such a bracing case of gentrification. This house is among the most bracing examples of genetrification.

    it looks like a nice, large house, but it’s pretty out of character, and not in the most pleasant stretches of West Oakland. Very pinned in by the 880 Freeway, The Port of Oakland and BART.

    I don’t think a person who understands the oakland market well would want to buy this.

  3. Complete negative bias to the reporting on this. I can say with a GREAT deal of authority that the nice parts of Oakland are up 30-40 percent during that time frame. West Oakland has not aged well in 5 years (and is defiantly not “nice”), and that is a good outcome for that area. I will admit that I expected it to go even a bit higher, but that is not a bad return on a $200K down payment:

    1. Jeffrey, thanks for remembering. My post and estimate took a lot of sh-t from a lot of people who apparently have very little understanding of the West Oakland market. It is beautiful, convenient, and has much less crime than any other Bay Area neighborhood I have lived in (Mission, Potrero Hill, SOMA). And there is going to be around $1B in construction starting next year including housing, retail and office space (Golden West, 212 units, 500 Kirkham St., 1000+ units and $300M, and the West Oakland BART redevelopment, $690M). I suppose the developers and investors in those projects don’t know much about real estate valuation or West Oakland’s “problems” either.

      1. I would be very surprised if West Oakland has less crime than Potrero Hill and the Mission (east side), at least the last couple years.

  4. Another cherry-picked example by SS of a relatively poorly performing sale. Super easy just to go on Zillow and look at some recent sales in SF that are *actually* selling above asking and much higher then in previous years. Not sure why you never showcase those.

  5. Could someone please explain to me why the “asking price” is a metric of anything other than a real estate agent’s desire to set low expectations for the seller to (i) make it easier to accept an offer ASAP and get their commission and (ii) look like a hero for selling above asking? And the price can be reset whenever the seller wants. It strikes me as utterly irrelevant to any meaningful analysis of the market.

    1. You are absolutely correct. My house is on the market. My asking price is $20,000,000. For $20,000,000, I will be out tomorrow morning. 🙂

  6. Every house in Oakland (and Berkeley) listed for a million-ish is not a real price. The sellers would not accept that price and realtors continue to list low in order to boost their record of “over asking” sales. It’s ridiculous but everyone knows that’s how it is.

    1. I always thought it was to attract more offers and start a bidding war to drive up the selling price but also as you say to boost the agents “over asking” numbers.

    2. It’s been that way for a while too. I have actually seen some nice ones list around $2M them go for $1M over asking. Agent looks like a hero…and the seller is happy with their haul too. Win, win

  7. Realtors are not concerned about their record of “over asking” sales. They couldn’t care less. They list low because it attracts more lookers and more bidders. The seller knows this. Everyone knows this. All they care about is getting the best price. It seems to work well at the moment. Different tactics may be useful at other times/places.

    1. Several years ago when looking for a house, bidded on several houses and had to play the guess how much over asking to pay. Lost out everytime. Finally found a house listed at the absolute top of our budget that was on the MLS for 2 months. Great house and listing agent said the listed price was the actual selling price. Paid that price and got the house.

      I think the “low listing” tactic would have sold the house immediately.

    2. Bingo. A listing agent’s job is to get the highest possible price for their client’s home. In a market like this, the best way to accomplish that is to list low and let buyers bid against each other.

  8. I would much rather have quality of life rather and NOT live in west oakland for 5 years for 12.6% appreciation.

  9. Who cares about the 41%? Why focus on that SS? It’s really amateurish…This is a very positive outcome for the seller @ $1.2675M in a very marginal Oakland neighborhood.

  10. Kudos on the (modest) price pop and playing a difficult hand as best as possible. A decent result in a grim neighborhood.

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