Having ticked up 5.9 percent in July, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, a seasonally adjusted index for which 100 denotes “an average level” of activity, rose another 9.8 percent in August to an all-time high of 132.8 and is now running 24.2 percent above its mark at the same time last year with 18.6 percent less listed inventory on the market, which is pushing prices up, versus 90 percent more inventory on the market in San Francisco proper.

5 thoughts on “Pending Home Sales in the U.S. Hit a Record High”
  1. The San Francisco market is behaving differently than the rest of the country currently. Well, condos are anyway and they’re what makes the market as a whole look the way it does. Anyway, does a negative development also not count as it’s different this time? Or is SF going to catch up to what the rest of the country is doing?

    1. Of course, condos actually represent the majority of “the market as a whole” in San Francisco, at least in terms of transactions. And while more volatile, condos remain a leading indicator for “the market as a whole.”

      And while the pandemic has amplified the trend, the fundamental reason why “the San Francisco market is behaving differently than the rest of the country,” and has been for a while, shouldn’t come as any surprise to anyone that’s actually plugged-in.

      1. Well you’ve obscured the point as is typical. Now you’re saying that the very slight net migration out, which counted college age adults, and was a grand total of 88 humans, is in keeping with the more pronounced covid-19 net migration out? That’s simply not supportable. And in fact, rents going down might reverse the natural out migration pattern to a degree. But you’ve concurred that it’s different here so that’s OK.

        1. While certainly slight, the negative net migration out of San Francisco was the first in a decade and meaningful, particularly with development on the rise.

          And yes, the sharp drop in rents should help mitigate the ongoing out migration and eventually draw others in, but with lower average rents which drives property values down.

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