Having jumped nearly 25 percent in July, the seasonally adjusted pace of existing-home sales across the U.S. ticked up 2.4 percent in August to an annual rate of 6.00 million sales, a pace which is 10.5 percent higher than at the same time last year and an effective 14-year high, according to the National Association of Realtors.
And with the rate of sales/demand far outpacing the rate of new listings/supply, listed inventory levels are down 18.6 percent on a year-over-year basis nationwide.
At the same time, inventory levels are now running 90 percent higher on a year-over-year basis in San Francisco and the number of reduced listings in San Francisco has jumped.
In the last cycle, I remember seeing the exact same thing. SF was 2-3 years ahead of the country in terms of peaking, and dropping, and hitting bottom. This time around, SF peaked in Q2 2018 and has been dropping since then, nothing to do w COVID actually. Now, 2 years into that down trend, I am thinking in another 6-9 month, we just might hit bottom of this cycle.
I don’t think home sales during the pandemic is following any sort of patterns from the past or taking “SF’s lead”. It seems most of this is a direct reaction to the pandemic and people are simply shuffling where they live – moving out of crowded areas/cities, moving towards suburbs or rural areas, selling rentals, etc. This will slow down in the winter, although the coming swarm of foreclosures will definitely move the needle again.
Not True. Timing very close. SF’s high was higher & low was lower.
In related news: Pending Home Sales in the U.S. Hit a Record High