As we outlined last month:

Purchased as new for $1.775 million in May of 2010, which was below asking and near the bottom on the Great Recession era market, the 2,800-square-foot “modern Hayes Valley sanctuary” at 124 Lily Street, re-sold for $3.25 million in February of 2017, representing total appreciation of over 80 percent, or 9.3 percent per year, despite the “architectural masterpiece” having been “used” over that seven year hold, which happens when the market is actually appreciating.

Yesterday, 124 Lilly Street returned to the market priced at $3.595 million, a sale at which would represent total appreciation of just over 10 percent since the first quarter of 2017 on an apples-to-apples basis for the single-family home “in the heart of one of the most vibrant SF villages” or roughly 1.7 percent per year.

In contract within a week of hitting the MLS, the resale of 124 Lily Street has now closed escrow with a below asking contract priced of $3.44 million, representing net appreciation of just 5.8 percent since the first quarter of 2017 for the modern single-family home on an apples-to-apples basis, with an up and down in the market between and the frequently misreported Case-Shiller index for “San Francisco” home values “still up 40 percent!” over the same period of time but trending down faster than during the Great Recession.

14 thoughts on “Apples-to-Index for that Modern Hayes Valley Lily Pad”
    1. Yeah, at over $1220 / sf, I think the real story here is that the 2017 buyers were chumps, not that the current pricing was a sign of the market apocalypse…

  1. “in the heart of one of the most vibrant SF villages”

    The street scene is apocalyptic. I really don’t understand the price. This is the competition, and it isn’t even close. 1 additional bedroom, 0.5 additional bath, more square feet. 2nd unit/Airbnb potential. Better architecture.

    1. Great find! I agree that the Victorian on Broderick St is a better value, but in this case, “better architecture” is in the eye of the beholder.

      The buyer here must have really liked the modern, interior-looks-like-a-loft inside a detached SFH type of home.

      1. “The buyer here must have really liked the modern, interior-looks-like-a-loft inside a detached SFH type of home.” The prison gate on the front door is just a bonus!

    2. The properties are different enough to attract different buyers. Hayes is walking distance to BART, which is great for access to SFO and East Bay and Millbrae (and likely a shuttle to the SSF biotech campuses as well as Caltrain). Broderick would keep you more confined to SF, probably closer to slightly better schools, more (but yeah, not entirely) car-dependent. Pre-kids I’d probably choose Hayes.

      1. Pre-kids, I don’t why anyone would need 4 bedrooms. And walking anywhere along that narrow alley is a no-go as far as I’m concerned. There are only 3 streetlights on the block and several spots where evil-doers could lurk. The 01/2023 imagery on Street View shows tags on the vacant property next door as well as the sidewalk in front of this property.

    3. I assume you’re referring to the coming AI apocalypse – Hayes Valley is now being dubbed “Cerebral Valley” due to its emergence as an “AI hub.”

      More seriously, Hayes Valley does seem to be surviving, if not thriving. A few places have closed but a number of interesting new ones have opened, and it’s always busy when I go.

      1. theres more of a zombie apocalypse in this particular location. I know someone who recently moved from that location after their husband was mugged right out front and they were sick of their 6 yr old seeing people shoot up right in front of the door

        1. I can’t imagine dropping $3.44 million to have that outside my front door. It’s like a scene from Mad Max.

  2. Obviously have not seen it in person but the multi-bifurcation of that second level seems awful (“…and here’s the dining hallway, the food prep hallway, the breakfast crypt. Please mind your head!”) Only thing, from pictures, that appears at all “open and airy” is the double-height living area, assisted by the window wall.

    Would also share others’ concerns re: street safety.

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