Having ended last year with the largest month-over-month decline in seven years, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area (which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula) dropped another 1.3 percent in January.
The index has dropped a total of 4.3 percent since the third quarter of 2018. And its year-over-year gain now measures 1.8 percent, representing the smallest year-over-year gain for the index since the second quarter of 2012.
While the index for the bottom third of the Bay Area market managed to eke out a 0.3 percent gain at the beginning of the year, its year-over-year gain has dropped to 3.6 percent, a drop of over eight (8) percentage points since January of 2018.
The index for the middle third of the market shed 1.5 percent in January but remains 3.0 percent higher on a year-over-year basis (versus 10.5 percent higher at the same time last year).
And the index for the top third of the market dropped 2.4 percent in January, its largest month-over-month drop in seven years, and its year-over-year gain has dropped to a total of 0.8 percent, down ten (10) percentage points since the first quarter of last year.
At the same time, the index for Bay Area condo values dropped another 1.6 percent in January. And having shed 5.7 percent since the second quarter of last year, the index is now running only 1.6 percent above its mark at the same time last year.
As we first noted in the third quarter of last year, Las Vegas is still leading the nation in terms of home price gains, up 10.5 percent year-over-year versus a national average of 4.3 percent, with Phoenix in second place (up 7.5 percent) and Minneapolis (up 5.1 percent) having displaced Atlanta (up 4.9 percent).
At 1.8 percent, San Francisco ranked second to last in terms of year-over-year gains, trailed only by San Diego (up 1.3 percent). And the national average was the lowest since 2015.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).