While the Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values across the nation gained 0.4 percent from August to September, San Francisco joined Cleveland and Detroit and were the only three major Metropolitan Areas for which the index declined, slipping 0.4 percent, 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent respectively.
That being said, the aggregate index for area single-family homes in San Francisco remains 5.7 percent higher versus the same time last year, which is the smallest year-over-year gain for the region in over four (4) years and versus 6.7 percent higher on a year-over-year basis in August.
The index for San Francisco slipped across all three price tiers in September, dipping 0.2 percent at the bottom end of the market (which remains 11.9 percent below its 2006-era peak), 1.1 percent for the middle (which slipped from 4.5 percent to 3.4 percent higher than its previous era peak), and 0.5 percent at the top-third of the Bay Area market which is still running 18.7 percent above its previous cycle peak circa August 2007 but has slipped from 19.9 percent higher over the past five months.
On a year-over-year basis, the bottom third of the market remains 9.9 percent higher versus 10.7 percent higher the month before while the middle third of the market is running 4.9 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, versus 6.4 percent higher in August, and the top third is 4.7 percent higher versus the same time last year, the smallest year-over-year gain since August of 2012.
At the same time, the index for San Francisco area condo values rebounded 1.1 percent from August to September, it’s first month-over-month gain in four months, and is now running 3.2 percent higher versus the same time last year and 20.9 percent higher than its previous cycle peak in October 2005, down from 22.3 percent higher in May.
And for the seventh month in a row, Portland, Seattle and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains in the index for single-family homes, up 10.9 percent, 11.0 percent and 8.7 percent respectively, but the pace of gains for all three have slowed.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).