As we first outlined back in February, when the average 30-year mortgage rate was only 6.64 percent, our analysis of the futures market was projecting far fewer rate cuts than many were banking on to drop the cost of capital and mortgage rates this year, an outlook which the Fed affirmed in March.

And in fact, the Fed just affirmed our latest analysis from two weeks ago, holding the current federal funds target rate firm and pushing the probability of at least two rate cuts by the end of this year down to around 40 percent, with the probability of a single rate cut having now ticked up to nearly 40 percent, the probability of no rate cuts (for you) having ticked up to nearly 20 percent and the remote possibility of a rate hike having just reared its ugly head.

We’ll keep you posted and plugged-in.

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