Once again, despite some misreports of a “market rebound” earlier this month, purchase mortgage application volume in the U.S., which is a leading indicator for sales, ticked down another (1) percent over the past week in the absolute, representing a 5 percent drop on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 12 percent drop from late February of last year, at which point application volume was down 41 percent from 2022, based on application data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Closer to home, pending home sales in San Francisco are currently down over 5 percent on a year-over-year basis, with a 40 percent drop from 2022 to 2023 and 50 (plus) percent drop from 2021 to today.
At the same time, the average rate for a 30-year jumbo mortgage has inched up to 7.20 percent, with the average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage nearing 7 percent, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers, other than the most obstinate, by surprise.
Residential prices haven’t fallen enough to make home purchases tenable at 7% rates.