Despite some misleading industry reports making the round and parroted in the press, the net number of homes on the market in San Francisco ticked up another 2 percent over the past week.

While inventory levels are still 2 percent lower than at the same time last year, they’re 50 percent higher than average for this time of the year over the past decade and over twice as high as they were in 2015, with the most single-family homes on the market in San Francisco, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in over ten years.

The uptick in inventory levels continues to be driven by a drop in sales (i.e., demand), with pending sales activity having been down nearly 45 percent over the past month on a year-over-year basis, which has more than offset a smaller drop in new listing activity (i.e., supply).

And with 30 percent of all active listings having been reduced at least once, versus closer to 20 percent at the same time last year, the average asking price per square foot of all the homes on the market in San Francisco is now 8 percent lower than at the same time last year, with the average price per square foot of the homes which are in contract having dropped back under $930 per square foot, despite a seasonal bump, which is 7 percent lower than at the same time last year and trending down.

6 thoughts on “Asking Prices Drop in San Francisco, Inventory Keeps Ticking Up”
  1. “Despite some misleading industry reports making the round and parroted in the press”

    Name names! Link reports/stories!

    1. For my guess at what ss had in mind, how about Home prices are rising again in two Bay Area counties. Is it a sign of wider rebound?, which to be fair, is mostly about the Bay Area as a whole, but says this:

      After eight consecutive months of declining home values in each of the Bay Area’s nine counties, data shows that decreases are beginning to soften, and two counties even saw growth in March — indicating that the region’s real estate market might heat back up through the spring, experts said.

      According to data from listings website Zillow, while home values in all of the 100 biggest Bay Area municipalities or Census-defined places are lower than they were both a year ago and six months ago, decreases from month to month are starting to shrink and for some are even reversing, which experts say is a sign of recovery…Homes around the Bay Area, including in cities like San Francisco and Oakland, are starting to see more bids and spending less time on the market.

      “If a home shopper goes out there and is expecting the conditions they heard about on the news last winter or if they’re really focused on year-over-year price changes, and they think every seller will be happy to see them,” he said, “they’re in for a rude awakening.”

      At least the real estate person quoted in the piece had the presence of mind to avoid saying “Buy now or be priced out forever!”

      1. Not quite, but it’s related. And speaking or rude awakenings, keep in mind that Zillow had to hastily exit the home buying, selling and flipping business due to the fact that their analytics and ability to expertly forecast the market weren’t accurate enough for them to turn a profit. But Zillow is excellent at generating eyeballs and press.

        1. Thanks a lot for that “eyeball generator” imagery implant. I hope to get some sleep tonight 🙂

  2. The other reports making the rounds, but not covered in the press too much, concerned yesterday’s FDIC seizure of First Republic Bank and its quick sale to J.P. Morgan Chase. What I am hearing (and tip of the hat to wilson for mentioning it last week) is that unlike Silicon Valley Bank, they didn’t have a whole bunch of bonds that were underwater but they did have a whole bunch of mortgages that were underwater on their balance sheet, and a substantial number of those mortgages were interest only and/or on other “sweetheart” terms that the bank offered specifically to attract the billionaires to the bank.

    Chase apparently doesn’t want to be in that business anymore than they already are, so that source of funding for multi-million dollar home purchases looks like it will be drying up, and other lenders are tightening lending standards.

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