Having ticked down 1.3 percent in June, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – dropped 3.5 percent in July, representing the largest month-over-month decline for the index since the first quarter of 2009. And while the index is still 10.8 percent higher than at the same time last year, it’s down 4.8 percent since May, has rapidly decelerated from a 24.1 percent year-over-year increase in March and is poised to soon demonstrate a year-over-year decline in values, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.
At a more granular level, the index for the least expensive third of the Bay Area market dropped 1.8 percent in July for a year-over-year gain of 7.7 percent; the index for the middle tier of the market dropped 3.5 percent for a year-over-year gain of 11.5 percent; and the index for the top third of the market dropped 4.0 percent for a year-over-year gain of 11.2 percent, down from 25.1 percent in March.
The index for Bay Area condo values, which remains a leading indicator for the market as a whole, dropped another 1.1 percent in July for a year-over-year gain of 5.0 percent, which was down from a localized peak of 12.0 percent in March and versus year-over-year gains of 14.8 percent, 7.0 percent and 9.0 percent in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York respectively.
And nationally, Tampa once again led the way with respect to exuberantly indexed home price gains, up 31.8 percent on a year-over-year basis, followed by Miami (up 31.7 percent) and Dallas (up 24.7 percent) but with a growing “deceleration in U.S. housing prices” and a month-over-month drop of 0.3 percent overall.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).