Having inched up 0.9 percent in May, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – dropped 1.3 percent in June, which was the largest month-over-month decline since the fourth quarter of 2018 but still 16.1 percent higher than at the same time last year with a rapid deceleration from a year-over-year gain of 24.1 percent in March.
At a more granular level, the index for the least expensive third of the Bay Area market slipped 0.7 percent in June for a year-over-year gain of 10.9 percent; the index for the middle tier of the market dropped 1.4 percent for a year-over-year gain of 16.8 percent; and the index for the top third of the market dropped 1.4 percent as well, for a year-over-year gain of 17.0 percent, down from 25.1 percent in March.
The index for Bay Area condo values, which remains a leading indicator for the market as a whole, dropped 1.0 percent in June for a year-over-year gain of 6.5 percent, which was down from a localized peak of 12.0 percent in March and versus year-over-year gains of 16.7 percent, 7.3 percent and 9.1 percent in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York respectively.
Nationally, Tampa once again led the way with respect to exuberantly indexed home price gains, up 35.0 percent on a year-over-year basis, followed by Miami (up 33.0 percent) and Dallas (up 28.2 percent) but with a continued “deceleration in U.S. housing prices” and a month-over-month gain of 0.6 percent overall.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).