As we outlined in October of last year:

Purchased from the sales office for $3,149,500, or roughly $2,003 per square foot, back in June of 2016, the “highest and largest” two-bedroom, two-bath unit in the Lumina tower at 338 Main Street, unit #35A, was then listed for $3,449,000 in March of 2017 while alternatively being offered for rent at $15,000 a month.

Reduced to $3,199,000 and then to $2,995,000 in May of 2017, 338 Main Street #D35A was relisted anew for “$2,900,000” in November of 2017 but then withdrawn from the market when an acceptable offer failed to materialize.

Listed anew for $3,299,000 [in early 2019], perhaps in anticipation of a mis-projected wave of millionaires that were going to “eat San Francisco alive,” the unsold 1,572-square-foot unit was then listed for rent at $11,000 a month (which was reduced to $10,500 after a week). And in October of [2019], the unit was listed anew for $3,150,000 and its days on the market were reset to “1.”

Reduced to $2,995,000 [in February of last year], and then offered for rent at $9,000 a month in March [of 2020], the list price for 338 Main Street #35A, the listing for which touts “unparalleled views of the Bay Bridge, water, city skyline & Twin Peaks,” along with “one of the most desirable floor plans at The Lumina,” is now down to $2,875,000, or roughly $1,830 per square foot, a sale at which would be 8.7 percent below the unit’s mid-2016 value on an apples-to-apples basis.

And the re-sale of 338 Main Street #35A, the HOA dues for which have been running around $1,200 a month, has now closed escrow with a contract price of $2,650,000, down 15.9 percent ($499,500) from mid-2016 on an apples-to-apples basis but “within 8 percent of asking” according to all industry stats and market reports on account of its reduced list price.

At the same time, the index for Bay Area condo values is up 14.7 percent from June of 2016 and the “median sale price” is up as well.

9 thoughts on “Value of a Prized View Condo Drops $500K”
  1. I honestly never understood the pricing at the Lumina when it was built. Per sq ft, it was a lot higher than the Infinity towers right in front of it. So the most prized view — that of the bay, is partially obstructed and you get to stare into 100’s of Infinity units instead. Never made sense to me why people would pay top dollar at the Lumina.

    1. I agree. As an Infinity homeowner, I watched Lumina being constructed and initially marketed. I simply couldn’t understand the pricing. We explored moving from a 2BR to 3BR in the poduim building and it would have cost us $1 million to move across the street and gain a bedroom. Sure, it was new and has nicer amenities – but also HOAs ~20% higher and non-deeded, valet parking. Seems like pricing is falling back in line to where it should have been early on.

    1. This place looks super baller, photographer did an excellent job. How do you know it’s the same owner?

  2. What would cause someone to buy a $3 million + home, and then put it back on the market nine months later? Was it somebody’s misguided notion that they’d be able to flip the property for a big gain? I think anybody with any experience knows that when you buy from the developer, you’re paying top dollar for “brand new” and, like buying a new car, the value is going to decrease as soon as it isn’t new any more.

    It always makes me a bit sad to see how some people have so much money that they can waste vast sums of it, throwing away half a million dollars plus five years of carrying costs. Did they even live in it?

    1. “I think anybody with any experience knows that when you buy from the developer, you’re paying top dollar for “brand new” and, like buying a new car, the value is going to decrease as soon as it isn’t new any more.”

      That’s incorrect. New construction values tend to appreciate, not depreciate, once all the units are sold and the sales office is closed, at least when the market is actually moving up.

      1. I bought a new low pac heights condo in the sales gallery in April 2015, and moved-in/closed Aug 2016. I sold it April 2021 with 20% return.

    2. For the benefit of those still laboring under the delusion that half-truths learned in Econ 1 explain complex, real-world market pricing, NA here is conflating a consumer good with an asset (and a non-fungible, illiquid one, at that).

    3. Not always true. There are deals for some of the early units when pricing gets calibrated and lower floor units that have OK views and reasonable price/sq-ft of around $1000.

      There are also deals for the LAST units where the developer loses money each month on keeping the sales office open for the last couple of units. They frequently throw in a bunch of upgrades, but you might not get to work with the design center.

      Personally, I think the preference is to explore the “early” route.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *