With the ICU availability for the greater Bay Area Region having just dropped to 3.5 percent of total capacity, the Regional Stay Home Order which went into effect at 11:59PM on December 17, 2020, and could have been lifted tomorrow, January 8, will be formally and indefinitely extended until the projected ICU availability for the region is back to at least 15 percent.

Based on current trends and resident behaviors, the Regional Stay Home Order for the Bay Area isn’t likely to be lifted for at least another month.

And the ICU availability in San Francisco, which had been hovering around 33 percent, has just dropped to 23 percent with at least 59 people in an ICU, 239 local hospital beds now occupied by COVID-19 patients, which is a new pandemic high, and an average of 264 new COVID-19 cases being diagnosed per day and climbing with a testing positivity rate which is now over 5 percent.

UPDATE (1/8): With the State’s formal announcement regarding the Bay Area extension calendared for tomorrow, the ICU availability for the greater Bay Area Region has dropped to 3.0 percent.

UPDATE (1/13): While the ICU availability for the greater Bay Area Region has ticked up to 4.7 percent, the State has formally extended the Stay Home Order for the region until the projected ICU capacity meets or exceeds 15 percent. And as we outlined above, based on current trends and resident behaviors, the Stay Home Order for the Bay Area isn’t likely to be lifted for at least another month (if not two).

The Stay Home Order for the Greater Sacramento Region, however, has been lifted with a current ICU availability of 9.4 percent and climbing while the ICU availability for the Northern California Region has dropped to 17.6 percent and is on the verge of triggering a Regional Order.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Liam

    You may be right, but I’m not so sure you can make that conclusion. The lifting of the order is based on four-week projected ICU capacity, which is a state-internal number that isn’t publicly released. Oddly, I haven’t heard any news on this front despite the order expiring tomorrow.

    • Posted by SocketSite

      A formal announcement from the State is imminent. And while the projected ICU capacity is the basis for lifting a regional order, a region’s current capacity would need to meet or exceed 15 percent as well else a new order would effectively be triggered, at least as written.

  2. Posted by Another anon

    Latest stats per the CDC today:
    Total virus deaths in California = 23,419 (0.059% of the state population)
    Total non-virus deaths in CA during the same time period: 279,227 (11.9x the virus deaths)

    • Posted by heynonnynonny

      And we put enormous effort into investigating murders, even though homicides are a small fraction of virus deaths. Does that perplex you too?

    • Posted by Michael

      Direct evidence that CA’s Stay Home Orders are working to help minimize the avoidable loss of life and resources consumed.

    • Posted by Jeffrey W. Baker

      At the current pace of 2700 deaths per week COVID-19 is far and away the #1 cause of death in the state. The next biggest killer is cancer at less than half.

    • Posted by vsssk

      You’re right. We need to make sure the ICUs are exactly overflowing, there are no hospital beds, and commonly treatable emergencies become life threatening…

      • Posted by Notcom

        And the comeback to that, of course, is “and how much is the ‘lockdown’ helping”?

        Might it be more targeted – does it make sense to put our zoos out of business – maybe permanently – while malls are open for “essential” perfume and t-shirt purchases? Why did rates fall (in the fall) when outdoor – sometimes even indoor – dining was permitted?

        Of course the regs are all “based on science”…just like every other “one size fits all” solution.

    • Posted by anon

      And the point is? If you aggregate deaths from heart disease, cancer, stroke, Alzheimer’s, infectious, accidents etc, it’s a large number.

      No one would look at these numbers this way and if your implied point is about the current state of stay home orders, you should look at deaths from covid during this time.

  3. Posted by SocketSite

    UPDATE: The ICU availability for the greater Bay Area Region has just dropped to 3.5 percent of capacity as since updated above.

  4. Posted by Steven Drews-Sternfeld

    Lordy lord I hope it somehow goes away so sick of stay at home wish I could dine in a restaurant!

  5. Posted by Another anon

    Explain to me why it is ok to sit body to body on a 24 hour airplane flight to go on vacation to the Maldives. But getting a haircut or going to a movie is not allowed. You can’t. There is no logic.

    Furthermore, the increase in cases while on full lockdown proves 100% how ineffective lockdowns are. Case transmission is obviously occurring between friends and families at home and not at restaurants or retail locations.

    • Posted by SFRealist

      Case transmission is occurring between friends (in violation of the rules) and families at home in addition to restaurants and retail locations.

    • Posted by Michael

      Gatherings between friends and family are the weakest link in the transmission chain, enabled by people downplaying Covid related risks and outcomes.

    • Posted by heynonnynonny

      Fewer cases at restaurants and retail is what tells you that the lockdowns are working. Less than 100% but way more than 0%. The Sheriff of Riverside County is responsible for hundreds or thousands of deaths because he scoffed at the lockdowns.

      Look, nobody likes being told what to do, and throwing tantrums is part of growing up. Ideally you could cry it out but this is an actual emergency and sometimes you have to just drag somebody out of harms way. Failing that I hope you are at least wearing a DNR bracelet to let the EMTs know you don’t want their help.

      It’s important that you get used to this because the new strain will require lockdowns considerably more strict than what we’ve had so far. So yes, they should have closed the airports weeks ago but that doesn’t make it safe to go to the movies – how about a little logic yourself?

    • Posted by OMN

      Because the airflow circulation system on airplanes is space age technology while your neighborhood barber might open a window or plug in a fan.

      • Posted by jimbo

        yes but cases are still being spread on planes.

    • Posted by jimbo

      agree. airplanes should be forced down to 25% capacity

  6. Posted by Annoyed Californian Citizen

    California is all messed up. this Governor is Corrupt and acting based on how much money he is also to make through lobbying and exploiting the grim situation. He knows he is fired and has no second chance and this is why we are in an Anarchy!! Enjoy your stay in California.

    • Posted by Brian M

      And all DeMONcratic Politicians are part of a secret pedophile cabal who conspired with THEM to steal the election from Our Leader, the Best President in History!!!!

      Geeeez. I would recommend you remove yourself to Alabama. Or maybe Redding. Someplace a little more friendly towards your mentality.

      • Posted by Annoyed Californian Citizen

        Thanks for turning a real issue into a non issue buddy, everyone who is blaming stupid policies of Newsom is NOT a Trump fan! Think thrice before you vote for this Governor who literally has blood on his hands by failing so many of us ( small businesses) .. we will emerge from this too!!

  7. Posted by SocketSite

    UPDATE: With the State’s formal announcement regarding the Bay Area extension calendared for tomorrow, the ICU availability for the greater Bay Area Region has dropped to 3.0 percent.

    • Posted by jimbo

      this lockdown is definitely going through March, but probably longer

  8. Posted by GMZ

    The bigger the lockdown the bigger the bailout.

  9. Posted by Timothy Ekren

    Is the lockdown at this point even effective at this point? Open up outdoor dining/seating, open up all indoor retail with mask & capacity mandates and get kids in school with testing protocol!

    I’m at a believe people are doing what they want, most spread is from within families or at least known relationships not random from say a salon (if it is, can’t be any worse than a crowded grocery store) and a lot of states have managed in person schooling with rolling shutdowns based on testing and reported out breaks and not unproved claims by teacher unions.

  10. Posted by SocketSite

    UPDATE: While the ICU availability for the greater Bay Area Region has ticked up to 4.7 percent, the State has formally extended the Stay Home Order for the region until the projected ICU capacity meets or exceeds 15 percent. And as we outlined above, based on current trends and resident behaviors, the Stay Home Order for the Bay Area isn’t likely to be lifted for at least another month (if not two).

    The Stay Home Order for the Greater Sacramento Region, however, has been lifted with a current ICU availability of 9.4 percent and climbing while the ICU availability for the Northern California Region has dropped to 17.6 percent and is on the verge of triggering a Regional Order.

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