With a sharp 19 percent drop in post-Thanksgiving testing volumes, the average number of daily new COVID-19 cases identified in San Francisco dropped from a new pandemic peak of 148 on 11/24 to 128 as of 11/26.
That being said, there were at least 184 new cases identified in San Francisco on 11/30, which was a new one-day high. The average percent positive rate is poised to jump from 2.14 percent – to over 3 percent – over the next week. And local hospitalizations, which peaked at 114 in July and tend to lag the local case rate trend by around two weeks, are already back up to 98 with at least 32 people in ICU beds as of this past Wednesday (12/2).
And while the average ICU bed availability in San Francisco is currently running around 34 percent, which is well over the City’s minimum goal of 20 percent and over twice the State’s new 15 percent minimum (below which a new regional and more restrictive Stay Home Order will be implemented), keep in mind that the current ICU bed availability within the “Bay Area” region, which includes the traditional 9 Bay Area counties plus Santa Cruz and Monterey, was down to 25.3 percent as of yesterday (12/3) and a regional breach of the 15 percent threshold will apply region wide and would remain in place for at least 3 weeks.
UPDATE: In partnership with Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, and Santa Clara counties, along with the City of Berkeley, San Francisco will preemptively adopt the State’s new Stay at Home Orders. From the Office of the Mayor:
“As of 10 p.m. on Sunday, December 6, San Francisco will close all personal services, outdoor dining, public outdoor playgrounds, outdoor museums, zoos and aquariums, drive-in theaters, and open-air tour busses and boats.
Additionally, San Francisco will halt indoor limited personal training in gyms and limit outdoor gyms and outdoor fitness classes to a maximum group size of 12 people at a time, including instructors and participants.
Low contact retail such as pet grooming, electronics or shoe repair services, may only operate in a curbside drop-off context. All other retail, including grocery stores must reduce capacity to 20%, and all indoor businesses that are open to the public, such as retail stores, must create a metering system to manage and enforce indoor customer capacity. This metering system must be in place no later 10 p.m. on Sunday December 6, when other amended order becomes operative.
Hotels [and short-term rentals] may remain open for essential workers and critical infrastructure support, including isolation and quarantine. Out of town visitors who are not essential workers or here for critical infrastructure support must stay in the hotel for the full amount of time required to quarantine. Real Estate viewings must take place virtually. The City will limit any outdoor gatherings to members of the same household up to 12 people.”
The Stay at Home Order is expected to be in effect through January 4, 2021, but will be extended if there’s not a consistent reduction in local case rates and hospitalizations and either the local ICU availability has dropped below 25 percent or the aforementioned “Bay Area” ICU availability has dropped below 15 percent.
In addition, the City will be increasing its focus on compliance and enforcement activities, with a pilot program to deploy community health ambassadors to street closure locations and the City’s Community Education and Response Team (CERT) addressing reported violations.
UPDATE (12/7): Following the post-Thanksgiving drop, the average number of daily new COVID-19 cases identified in San Francisco is back up to an average of 134 new cases per day and poised to spike with nearly 300 new cases and counting recorded on 12/1 alone, a 60 percent jump from the prior week’s peak.
At the same time, while testing rates have dropped, the average percent positive rate is up to 2.64 percent and should soon tick over 3 percent, as we outlined above.
And as of this past Saturday (12/5), there were 118 confirmed COIVD-19 related hospitalizations in San Francisco, which is a new pandemic high and with at least 32 people now in an ICU.
UPDATE (12/7): While the City’s initial guidance stated that “Real Estate viewings must take place virtually” under the Stay Home Order that’s now in place, the formal order allows for in person showing if a virtual showing “is not feasible” and “includes no more than two members of the same household, only one person shows the unit and the occupants [of the property being shown are not] present.”
UPDATE (12/9): While the average rate of COVID-19 testing in San Francisco has dropped below the run up to Thanksgiving, the average percent positive rate has jumped to 3.26 percent and is now poised to hit 4 percent.
And with over 300 new cases now recorded on 12/1 alone, the 7-day average number of daily new COVID-19 cases in San Francisco, which had peaked at 131 back in July, is poised to hit 200 within the next couple of days, with over 120 hospital beds already occupied by COVID-19 patients, which is a new pandemic high, at least 30 people in an ICU, and a typical two-week lag between case rate trends and hospitalizations.
UPDATE (12/9): The ICU availability for the Bay Area Region has dropped nearly five (5) full percentage points over the past week to 20.9 percent.
Once again, all eleven counties in the Bay Area Region will be required to adopt the State’s supplemental Stay Home Order for at least (another) 3 weeks if the ICU availability for the region drops under 15 percent.
And with the ICU availability for the Greater Sacramento Region having just dropped to 14.3 percent, a Regional Stay Home Order will be in effect for Alpine, Amador, Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Sacramento, Sierra, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties starting tomorrow, 12/10 at 11:59 PM.
UPDATE (12/10): The ICU availability for the Bay Area Region has dropped to 17.8 percent. If the trend continues, a regional Stay Home Order for all eleven counties could be triggered as early as this weekend, if not tomorrow.
At the same time, the 7-day average number new COVID-19 cases in San Francisco is up to 181 per day and poised to hit 200 within a day or two, with at least 129 local hospital beds now occupied by COVID-19 patients (which is a new pandemic high), at least 32 people in an ICU, and an average two-week lag between case rate trends and hospitalizations.
UPDATE (12/11): As projected, the 7-day average number of daily new COVID-19 cases in San Francisco has jumped to 212, with at least 128 local hospital beds now occupied by COVID-19 patients and 33 people in an ICU.
UPDATE (12/11): The ICU availability for the Bay Area Region is down to 16.7 percent.
UPDATE (12/14): While still within striking distance of 15 percent, the ICU availability for the Bay Area Region has ticked back up to 17.8 percent. At the same time, the 7-day average number of daily new COVID-19 cases diagnosed in San Francisco has jumped to 232 with at least 148 local hospital beds now occupied by COVID-19 patients and 37 people in an ICU.
UPDATE (12/15): The ICU availability for the Bay Area Region has dropped back down to 15.8 percent with at least 160 hospital beds in San Francisco now occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients and 40 people in local ICUs which is a new pandemic high.
UPDATE (12/16): A Regional Stay Home Order for the greater Bay Area has just been triggered.