Having turned negative last month, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – has shed another 0.6 percent, an outcome which shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.
As such, the index is now down 0.7 percent on a year-over-year basis despite a dramatic drop in mortgage rates over the same period of time, plenty of IPO related hype from industry folks since the start of the year and a stock market which is still hovering near an all-time high. And that’s versus an indexed year-over-year gain of 9.9 percent at the same time last year.
At a more granular level, the index for the bottom, least expensive, third of the market managed to inch up 0.1 percent in September for a total year-over-year gain of 0.9 percent (versus a year-over-year gain of 10.6 percent at the same time last year); the index for the middle third of the market, which peaked last year, dropped another 1.1 percent and is down 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis; and the index for the top third of the market shed 0.8 percent in September and is now down 1.0 percent on a year-over-year basis (versus a year-over-year gain of 9.1 percent gain at the same time last year).
The index for Bay Area condo values, which peaked in July, slipped another 0.1 percent in September but managed to eke out a year-over-year gain of 0.2 percent.
Nationally, Phoenix is still leading the way in terms of home price gains, up 6.0 percent on a year-over-year basis, followed by Charlotte (up 4.6 percent) and Tampa (up 4.5 percent).
And of the top 20 metropolitan areas in the nation, which were up an average of 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, San Francisco was the only metro area to record a year-over-year loss (for the second month in a row), with Chicago, which ranked second to last in terms of performance in September, managing to eke out a 0.6 percent gain.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).