For the first time since early 2012, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – has dropped on a year-over-year basis, an outcome which shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.
Granted, it’s a nominal drop of 0.1 percent. But that’s versus a 10.5 percent year-over-year gain at the same time last year and despite a dramatic drop in mortgage rates over the same period of time, plenty of IPO related hype from industry folks since the start of the year and a stock market which is still hovering near its all-time high.
At a more granular level, the index for the bottom third of the market managed to inch up 0.8 percent in August for a total year-over-year gain of 1.0 percent (versus a year-over-year gain of 10.7 percent at the same time last year); the index for the middle third of the market, which peaked last year, slipped another 0.3 percent and is currently down 1.2 percent on a year-over-year basis; and the index for the top third of the market dropped 1.5 percent for a year-over-year gain of 0.0 percent (versus a year-over-year gain of 9.7 percent gain at the same time last year).
And having slipped 0.5 percent in August, the index for Bay Area condo values is now down 0.3 percent on a year-over-year basis having turned negative for the first time since 2012 in the first quarter of this year.
Nationally, Phoenix is still leading the way in terms of home price gains, up 6.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, followed by Charlotte (up 4.5 percent) and Tampa (up 4.3 percent) with Las Vegas (up 3.3 percent) having just dropped out of the top three.
And of the top 20 metropolitan areas in nation, San Francisco was the only metro area to record a year-over-year loss in August, with Seattle, which ranked second to last in terms of performance, managing to eke out a 0.7 percent gain.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).