While some segments are doing better and others worse, the overall pace of home sales is still down in San Francisco.

In fact, recorded sales in the first half of the year will be lower on a year-over-year basis. And despite some reports to the contrary, sales in the second quarter of the year are on pace to be lower as well, with contract activity having dropped over the past month and currently running 10 percent lower versus the same time last year.

At the same time, inventory levels have been running an average of 14 percent higher, on a year-over-year basis, since the start of the year in San Francisco.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by curmudgeon

    Can you comment on the Compass (ex Paragon) report that hit the news in the last few days which implied the opposite. I’m lazy; I didn’t look closely enough to parse the difference. I THINK maybe it looked at segments of the market, and you’re talking about the market as a whole?

    • Posted by SocketSite

      Keep in mind that Compass reports are based on transactions reported to the MLS, which doesn’t account for the majority of new construction activity or off-market sales.

      In addition, the basis of the recent Business Times/Compass report, in terms of sales volumes, was simply the “luxury market,” which was defined as sales of single-family homes for $3 million or more and condos with a sale price of at least $2 million.

      Defined as such, the “luxury market” only represents around 10 percent of the total market in San Francisco. And based on Compass’ data, but not highlighted in the report, the difference in “luxury market” sales between the first half of 2018 (314) and the first half of this year (329) was a total of 15 sales.

      At the same time, with more expensive homes on the market, more expensive homes tend to sell. And when the share of “luxury” home sales increases, it mixes the median sale price up.

        • Posted by Ohlone Californio

          And as reported sales trickle in, July will shortly show a volume gain year over year, total. And it will also display more sales in both condos over 2M and SFRs over 3M.

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            Linking back to a thread where you were challenged on data and had no response? OK.

            Anyway, to that point, again, they’re already nearly up, two sales at last check, July over July, and they’re up over 2016 and 2017 ytd.

            Your points here regarding this current market we’ve been in for five years or so are basically the following. There was a very hot June 2018, and a very hot first part of June 2018. And that’s it. But you’re really, really stunting on those pretty shallow pillars. Seems quite forced.

          • Posted by SocketSite

            Again, our data and compilations, which are based on Corelogic’s recorded sales reports (versus your queries of an MLS-based tool) are solid. And while you might not have recognized it as a response, we simply can’t account for your calculations.

            And total sales this past June were definitely down versus 2018! Of course, they were also lower than in June of 2017. Or in June of 2016. Or in June of 2015. Or in June of 2014. Or in June of 2013. Or in June of 2011. Or in June of 2010. Or in June of 2009. Or in June of 2007. Or in June of 2006. Or in June of 2005. Or in June of 2004 as well (which, unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, is as far back as our recorded data file goes).

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            Yes, and the conversation went further. I pointed out the MLS is also backed by core logic. I suggested the reason for the possible disparity as far as how TICs are recorded. And you had nothing to say other than this is the way you’ve been doing it for some time. Then as a response to a different point, you linked back to the same thread.

          • Posted by SocketSite

            While your tool might be “backed by Corelogic,” your queries, calculations and methodologies are not. But you’re correct, we have been consistent in our approach to TIC sales (which are not moving the market or distorting the overall trends).

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            Oh OK, so a cool June historically. Fair enough, I see that too and I’ll own that I pared down your points a bit too far. That said, 2019’s June sales are not that far off other some other years, within 10 percent or so. And again, May was up slightly year over year, April was up, and July is ultimately going to be up year over year. I simply don’t see how one can term this data “trending.”

            By the way I show 161 TIC sales thus far this calendar year …

          • Posted by SocketSite

            And once again, the first half of the year has six month, four of which recorded year-over-year volume declines (ranging from 8.5 to 21.1 percent), one of which was a push (up 0.5 percent) and only one of which was up 5.1 percent (which was back in April with the pace of sales having since dropped). And together, sales in the first half of the year totaled the fewest since 2011.

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            No. Again, 1/1/19 – 6/30/19 SFR, condo + TIC and 2-4 units sales (2695) are up over 2016 (2543) , 2017 (2652), and 2011 (2691) for that matter.

          • Posted by SocketSite

            And once again, while we can’t account for your individual queries, recorded home sales are down (as is the pace of pending sales).

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            No, once again, it is you who can’t account for the discrepancies, and you are incapable of any degree of magnanimity.

          • Posted by SocketSite

            Based on the numbers you’re quoting, you’re missing hundreds of recorded sales. And while we can’t account for your discrepancies, at the very least, the missing sales would suggests you’re either working with an incomplete database of records or a faulty methodology.

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            I’m flatly reporting the MLS data. The only things missing are proprietary in house condo sales. And you are missing some TIC data, for your part. Also I guess I need to point out that you necessarily derive your pending data, which you tout regularly on here, from the same MLS source you question.

  2. Posted by anon

    Bloomberg ran an article today about how nationally bidding wars have faded and are four times less likely than a year ago.

    And despite all of the factors that should be juicing the market right now, locally: “While San Francisco is the most competitive market, the share of listings that got multiple offers fell to 28% from 65%….San Jose, in the heart of California’s Silicon Valley, has seen the country’s most dramatic comedown. Only 6% of offers faced competition in June, half the national rate. A year earlier, it was 74%.”

    • Posted by Been There

      Recall that this article pertains only to transactions involving Redfin agents, not every transaction. That said, possibly indicative. I’d like to see where Redfin agents are involved – what price points, how many transactions. I’ve never seen one in the ~ 20 of bids and offers I’ve experienced over the last decade.

  3. Posted by SF Landlord

    My anecdote. My Central Sunset house I listed in June (priced under $2M) was in contract in 10 days with multiple offers well past listing price. However, not all the nearby comparable homes are flying off the market. A lot of them have been sitting well past 45 days. Buyers do have more choices these days and are being more selective. Only top shelf inventory (or those properties priced competitively) are selling immediately right now.

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