While some segments are doing better and others worse, the overall pace of home sales is still down in San Francisco.

In fact, recorded sales in the first half of the year will be lower on a year-over-year basis. And despite some reports to the contrary, sales in the second quarter of the year are on pace to be lower as well, with contract activity having dropped over the past month and currently running 10 percent lower versus the same time last year.

At the same time, inventory levels have been running an average of 14 percent higher, on a year-over-year basis, since the start of the year in San Francisco.

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Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by curmudgeon

    Can you comment on the Compass (ex Paragon) report that hit the news in the last few days which implied the opposite. I’m lazy; I didn’t look closely enough to parse the difference. I THINK maybe it looked at segments of the market, and you’re talking about the market as a whole?

    • Posted by SocketSite

      Keep in mind that Compass reports are based on transactions reported to the MLS, which doesn’t account for the majority of new construction activity or off-market sales.

      In addition, the basis of the recent Business Times/Compass report, in terms of sales volumes, was simply the “luxury market,” which was defined as sales of single-family homes for $3 million or more and condos with a sale price of at least $2 million.

      Defined as such, the “luxury market” only represents around 10 percent of the total market in San Francisco. And based on Compass’ data, but not highlighted in the report, the difference in “luxury market” sales between the first half of 2018 (314) and the first half of this year (329) was a total of 15 sales.

      At the same time, with more expensive homes on the market, more expensive homes tend to sell. And when the share of “luxury” home sales increases, it mixes the median sale price up.

  2. Posted by anon

    Bloomberg ran an article today about how nationally bidding wars have faded and are four times less likely than a year ago.

    And despite all of the factors that should be juicing the market right now, locally: “While San Francisco is the most competitive market, the share of listings that got multiple offers fell to 28% from 65%….San Jose, in the heart of California’s Silicon Valley, has seen the country’s most dramatic comedown. Only 6% of offers faced competition in June, half the national rate. A year earlier, it was 74%.”

    • Posted by Been There

      Recall that this article pertains only to transactions involving Redfin agents, not every transaction. That said, possibly indicative. I’d like to see where Redfin agents are involved – what price points, how many transactions. I’ve never seen one in the ~ 20 of bids and offers I’ve experienced over the last decade.

  3. Posted by SF Landlord

    My anecdote. My Central Sunset house I listed in June (priced under $2M) was in contract in 10 days with multiple offers well past listing price. However, not all the nearby comparable homes are flying off the market. A lot of them have been sitting well past 45 days. Buyers do have more choices these days and are being more selective. Only top shelf inventory (or those properties priced competitively) are selling immediately right now.

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