As foreshadowed, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped 11 basis points over the past week to 3.73 percent, which is now down 121 basis points (1.21 percentage points) since the fourth quarter of last year and represents the lowest 30-year rate since November of 2016.

At the same time, the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage has dropped to 3.16 percent (which is 88 basis points below its mark at the same time last year) and the average rate for a 5-year adjustable has dropped to 3.39 percent (which is 48 basis point below its mark at the same time last year).

And the probability of a Fed easing rates by the end of the year is holding at 100 percent according to an analysis of the futures market and which shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.

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