With the number of newly proposed units of housing to be built in San Francisco having outpaced the number of units that finished up construction, the overall pipeline of apartments and condos under development in San Francisco increased by 2,600 in the first quarter of 2018 to a record 67,800, which is 4,200 higher than at the same time last year.
And having slipped in each of the previous two quarters, the number of units in projects which have already broken ground and should be ready for occupancy within the next year or two has ticked up by 475 to 6,750 but remains 23 percent below a current cycle peak of 8,800 which was set in the third quarter of 2015.
At the same time, there are now 15,300 net-new units of housing for which building permits have either been issued, approved or requested, which is roughly even to the 15,500 in the quarter before, along 30,500 units in projects that have already been approved but not yet permitted (which includes the majority of the 10,500 units by Candlestick, 7,800 units on Treasure Island and 5,680 units at Parkmerced, projects which have overall timelines measured in decades, not years), an increase of 1,400 from the last quarter of 2017.
And with proposals for another 15,200 units of housing now under review by the City’s Planning Department, which is up from 14,400 the quarter before and bolstered by the anticipated passage of San Francisco’s proposed Central SoMa Plan, San Francisco’s Housing Pipeline now totals a record 67,800, including 11,450 units of “affordable housing” which are to be offered at below market rates, according to our latest accounting of Planning’s database as newly mapped above.
Ha! most of that land is haunted by the Toxic Avenger. If housing is built it will be a crime against humanity. Old Navy dudes that worked the bases say you can’t cleanup the level of dumping that occurred in those days. It was a different attitude. TT faked it and got paid by the corrupt crony democrats for decades. They are on the public dole. Obama slammed a no-bid “grant” to them on his last day in office. It will need to remain industrial land. The level of unpunished corporate and government fraud is astonishing. Hopefully there will be indictments one day but the connections seem to run deep in SF, CA and Fed. Maybe Trump is already on to this – maybe not.
Knowing what we know now about all of the blatant falsified testing, it does seem like the responsible action would be for the City to pull the Hunters Point numbers from the pipeline.
To me the key number is the number of units in projects which have already broken ground and should be ready for occupancy within the next year or two – 6,750. That is amazing.
The city has stated that 5,000 units delivered per year is what we need just to keep prices flat. Seems like we need even more than 6750 under construction at any given time to hit that 5k number.
And yet, with around 12,500 units delivered over the past three years, or an average of roughly 4,150 per year, we’ve seen a real decrease in new construction pricing, values and rents.
But to be fair, it wasn’t actually the City which came up with that oft-quoted “5K’ figure, the modeling for which wasn’t particularly rigorous, to say the least.
Let’s see, what is almost certainly a rounded number (5K) with no confidence interval (which for something like this would probably be somewhere between 30% and 50% of whatever the actual average should be)… no, rigorous is not the word I’d use either.
based on what we see, would you estimate that 4150/ yr over last 3 years to be decreasing to 3000/ yr for the next 3 years?
Agreed
Now connect the SE to the SW and the NW by transit loops/links and new lines vs. all the money going to RAB and you can think about building out other sections of the NW and non-developed areas… But till than transit equity is missing… too much to the RAB not enough to other lines for increased capacity and flexibility.
With Hunters Point on hold, the city should cut a deal with Lennar/Five Point to accelerate and densify the Candlestick project to get more units online sooner. With the “outlet mall” there blessedly dead, you could easily add another 10K units.
On an interim basis, express buses to Bayshore Caltrain/T-line/BART can handle the demand as the units go up. They should also upzone India Basin and the failed suburban office parks along Evans, extend a branch of the T there, and use some of the tax increment funding to pay for it. Once the retesting is done at HP, make the investment to extend the light rail through HP and across the planned Yosemite Slough bridge to Candlestick. Once that light rail is in, you’ll hear demands to further upzone the HP area.
Big sites like these are the only way we’ll reach our housing goals. NIMBYs will always keep developments elsewhere in town in check.
The contamination may not be solvable from a legal perspective. HP may never see residential development. Turn it into a park? If the whole area ends up by default permanent open space that would not be bad. More than worrying about HP/CP, which is generally dead in the water, the focus should be on Baylands. Reduce significantly the office component there and add lots of housing. With no or greatly reduced HP housing, 9 million feet of office space at Baylands – with almost no housing – is obscene. Are you listening Mayor elect Breed?
You need to be asking the mayor of BRISBANE if he’s listening. It’s an incorporated city in a different county. Agree it’s obscene, and the only reason the council there moved from ZERO housing units to agree to a vote on a still-paltry number is pressure from Sen. Weiner and others. We need some kind of state or regional measure with TEETH to get these NIMBY cities to do their fair share. Most of what I’ve seen instead is this useless drivel about annexing them. Can’t be done.
17,000 units on former radioactive waste sites, where cleanup workers have plead guilty to fraud.
Amazing.