Single-family home and condominium values within the San Francisco MSA hit all-time highs in February, with home values jumping 2 percent and condos gaining 1.3 percent, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The San Francisco index for single-family homes is currently running 9.8 percent higher on a year-over-year basis and has gained 70 percent since early 2009, but it remains 8.6 percent below its 2006 peak.

The index for the bottom third of the market gained 2.3 percent in February and is running 13.1 percent higher versus the same time last year; the index for middle third of the market gained 0.6 percent in February, up 9.2 percent year-over-year; and the index for the top third of the market jumped 2.8 percent, up 8.8 percent year-over-year.

S&P Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco Single-Family Home Values

According to the index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to just below June 2004 levels (28 percent below an August 2006 peak); the middle third is back to February 2005 levels (11 percent below a May 2006 peak); and values for the top third of the market are at an all-time high, 5.4 percent above an August 2007 peak.

Reversing a two-month slide, San Francisco condo values gained 1.3 percent in February and are running 10.8 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, 6.4 percent higher than at the previous cycle peak reached in October of 2005.

S&P Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco Condo Values

For the broader 10-City U.S. composite index, home values gained 0.5 percent in February and are running 4.8 percent higher on a year-over-year basis but remain 16.6 percent below a June 2006 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Hitman

    Who is going to be the first one to call for fading this trend? Bubble? Not me, the trend is your friend. Buy, Buy, Buy!

  2. Posted by San FronziScheme

    As I have said a few times before, the choice of 1/1/2000 for the common starting point is logical, but doesn’t really fit with the reality of SF.

    All metros suffered in similar ways from the early 90s slump, but SF went back up much earlier than the rest thanks to the dot-com bubble.

    I think picking a bottom would be more appropriate. 1995?

  3. Posted by Rmb

    Bubbalicious or should I say boba-licious. The thing with “bubbles” is they can last for years. There will always be people calling any price appreciation a bubble. Market prices are defined by what buyers are willing to pay and we can extrapolate all the reasons why that may be unreasonable from our perspective but from the buyers situation, obviously it makes sense to them.

  4. Posted by anon

    Things seem very bubble-like for sure. But the national economy is not doing what a few sectors of the Bay Area economy are doing. What happens if and when people nationwide start using the internet to buy more things, once the national economy gets on better footing?

    Well, that’s the argument for “We’re not going to see a bubble pop any time soon.”

    Not sure if I buy that, either.

    • Posted by moto mayhem

      the stock market has gained a heck of a lot more than housing.

  5. Posted by confused renter

    Seems pretty consistent with what I have been seeing during open houses.

    Lack of supply continues to be a problem, driving up bidding wars.

    [Editor’s Note: While historically low, keep in mind that inventory levels have increased around 10 percent over the past month as new listings have outpaced sales (which is typical for this time of the year).]

    • Posted by R

      Yeah, maybe the stats are up, but there’s not much out there.. look at the southern more desirable neighborhoods for available SFH:

      Castro: 4
      Mission: 2
      Noe Valley: 10
      Glen Park: 4
      Bernal Heights: 6
      Potrero Hill: 5

      And of these 31 houses, only 5 have been on the market for over 14 days.

      That’s pretty low inventory.

    • Posted by confused renter

      Listings maybe up but nowhere enough to meet the demand.

      The listing price has become a meaningless metric in this area because most properties sell for far more.

      I don’t think we have reached the tipping point yet. There is far too much momentum in the market place due to its small size.

  6. Posted by Mr. Guest

    “What happens if and when people nationwide start using the internet to buy more things, once the national economy gets on better footing?”

    The problem is that much of the rest of the country is very different from the Bay Area, in terms of density and geography and culture. There are a lot of apps which are widely-used here that just won’t have the same kind of scalability nationwide, because there’s just not the same need. So I don’t buy it either.

    • Posted by Amewsed

      What if everyone in China buys an iphone/iwatch, or any product made in the U.S.? That would easily eclipse any national demand.

      • Posted by EcceMorons

        When Apple just reported its most recent earnings, one interesting factoid was that they sold more IPhones in China than in the US.

        • Posted by Amewsed

          The key is to make something here that has multiple uses for the Chinese market (unlike the fancy handbags, expensive european wines, etc. which are pure aesthetic plays.) More movies are released first on the global stage than domestically for this reason.

    • Posted by anon

      you speak to urban area use apps, only. that is not what was said.

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