With new listings in San Francisco having outpaced sales over the past six weeks, the overall inventory of homes for sale in San Francisco is currently running 8 percent higher versus the same time last year, with the number of single-family homes on the market 22 percent higher, 2 percent lower for listed condos.
The number of listed properties for sale in San Francisco has been running an average of 8 percent higher on a year-over-year basis for the past four weeks. And of the 200 or so single-family homes currently on the market, up from 180 last week, half are listed for under a million dollars.
In terms of unlisted inventory in new developments about town, there are roughly 700 units on the market, twice as many as six months ago but roughly half the number at the same time of the year in 2008.
At the same time, recorded sales, which includes both listed and unlisted transactions, were 29.5 percent lower on a year-over-year basis last month, the slowest February in terms of sales since 2009.
Can you guys please cite your data source? Every other source, including MLS shows record low inventory.
[Editor’s Note: We use MLS data and compare it on an apples-to-apples and point in time basis, which most sources do not.
In addition, don’t confuse the aggregate number of listings during the month with “inventory,” as inventory is a function of listings (supply) less sales (demand).]
Where do you get your MLS data?
From a weekly third-party query of the database which we then compile and compare. We have the weekly data going back to 2006.
I think it’s better to call what you’re measuring here “Months of Inventory”. I think the confusion comes from the fact that to most people the term inventory itself should be, in actual fact, equivalent to listings. That’s really the common definition of the word: a list of items or stock on hand.
That said- it’s interesting that sales are so low with inventory marginally higher. Downward pricing pressure incoming?
I think it’s better to call what you’re measuring here “Months of Inventory”
That’s not correct. Months of Inventory would be the ratio of sales to available inventory.
That’s really the common definition of the word: a list of items or stock on hand.
That’s correct. And the housing stock on hand is equal to…listings less sales!
Huh, fair enough. I had completely misunderstood what you were getting at. Add me to the camp that now doesn’t understand why you have to subtract sales from listings. Do listings generally contain already sold properties?
Yeah, if it’s a sale, then it’s not a listing. And vice versa.
So why would you subtract the two?
Ummm, just spitballing here, but maybe the editor is using listings to mean “Listings added during a week” not “Count of all listed homes for sale”
So, Listing minus sales, gives you the change in listed inventory for that week?
(The derivative of the “Count of all listed homes for sale”)
So maybe by keeping a running sum of “listing minus sales” you can approximate the “Count of all listed homes for sale”??
Wow, now I’m confused too.
How is “number of listed properties for sale” not just the number of listed properties for sale??
Interesting stat. Doesn’t seem to be helping the 8 people I know feel any better about finding a decent home that doesn’t fly off the market, over asking in under a month pretty much anywhere in the 7×7. Remember when Prime was D7! LOL.
Market seems to be in the middle of the up trend, nothing is changing as of now. Inventory is still low, even up 8% from an extremely low level of the same time last year.
I think a more meaningful comparison is a weekly or monthly comparison. One day’s data does not show a trend.
[Editor’s Note: We completely agree with respect one day’s worth of data, or even a month, but as reported above: “The number of listed properties for sale in San Francisco has been running an average of 8 percent higher on a year-over-year basis for the past four weeks.” Keep in mind that we haven’t seen four consecutive weeks with YOY increases since early 2011.]
IMHO, I think it’s because it’s spring, people waited all winter to sell and now there’s more sunny days and the buyers are prowling. I think there will be more buyers in April, May, June & July. What do you think.
I am having trouble wrapping my head around all of this. Quantity sold is down, while inventory is trending up, which is pointing to a drop in demand as opposed to drop in supply. The confusing part is prices are up YOY & MOM which by laws of economics should decrease with demand.
The only possible explanation I can think of is price momentum due to underpricing. House A sells for $1000/sqf, which affirms the price as a comp. House B sells for $1050/sqf due to bidding frenzy, which reaffirms $1050 as the comp and the cycle continues.
The quantity drops as you have fewer actors reaffirming the price and fewer actors able to participate as the price increases (priced out effectively).
From what I’ve seen in the market, the housing market is still hot without any signs of slowing down. Desirable properties are still seeing 10+ offers and selling for 100s thousands above asking which is keeping the price momentum strong.
“The confusing part is prices are up YOY & MOM which by laws of economics should decrease with demand.”
Multiple market segments.
The mass market where the volume was, is hurting.
The high high end is doing just fine.
That would certainly make sense. Bay area homes have been appreciating at 10% yoy, which outpaces median income level changes by far. The top end of the market is less sensetive to income level fluctuations.