As plugged-in people knew to expect, the sale of 912 Noe Street has closed escrow with a reported contract price of $1,610,000, officially 34 percent over list price for the 1,592 square foot Noe Valley property with “tons of expansion potential.”
As we noted in February following the sale of 891 Noe for $1,585,000, another Noe property with “tons of potential” that had been listed for $1,149,000: if you’re wondering what’s likely in store for 891 and 912 Noe, here’s a hint as to why these types of properties are being bid up and why we chose our headline for our piece on number 912.
Bought as a small two-bedroom for $880,000 in 2009, 1436 Sanchez sold for $2,950,000 last month having been redesigned and rebuilt as a contemporary five-bedroom LEED Platinum home.
We’ll let you know when the plans are drawn and the permits are pulled for 912 Noe.
Will Any Rare And Coveted Architectural Details Survive? [SocketSite]
A Noe Valley Victorian Aims To Be SF’s Eighth LEED Platinum Home [SocketSite]

30 thoughts on “Over Asking On Noe And Understanding The Potential Demand”
  1. One big difference between these two properties. I toured 1436 Sanchez when it was on the market way back when – it had been remuddled (at least once, probably a few times) and there were no (rare, coveted or any other sort of) architectural details to speak of.

  2. This is a big overbid. But I don’t think the initial pricing was that crazy. What WAS out of line was 779 Wisconsin, priced at 699k. Rumor has it 80 offers came in ….

  3. Speaking of 779 Wisconsin, we put in an offer at 15% over the listing, and the listing agent said that our offer was “unacceptable”. 🙂

  4. If this # of offers on 779 Wisconsin is correct, I feel there’s a lemmings effect this spring.
    1000s of fence-sitters missed out on some fantastic deals 3 years ago. Now everyone’s rushing for whatever patch of fresh grass left, if any. There’s safety in numbers, right?…
    This is turning out to be a very entertaining spring.

  5. We bought almost 2.5 years ago. Boy do we consider ourselves lucky. We were able to take our time, and not rush to put an offer in. When we did find the place we bought we were only up against one other person. He bid more than us but ended up not getting financing (all cash bids were still a thing of the past).
    Now friends of ours are either giving up or bidding on multiple properties only to be out bid.
    I am curious though about these “over asking” listings. Are these a case of agents not knowing the market or purposely doing it to make them look good after the sale?

  6. We bid on this place, quite a bit over asking and were not even close. Our agent said the winning bid was an all cash, no contingency 7 day close kind of offer. We also bid on 150 Navajo in Mission Terrace, which got 25 offers, the winner being another all-cash offer.
    We have bid on six places in the last six months, always bid quite a bit over asking and always lost out to all-cash offers.
    I wonder if people are still dismissive of the “Facebook Effect”? Facebook went out of lockup in November and the market has perked up quite a bit since then. Are these two unrelated?
    I personally know three Facebook millionaires (out of four that I know that work there!) that have bought homes in Noe or Dolores Heights over the last six months.

  7. I think this market is beyond what most agents would have predicted. The winter was atypical with places selling very quickly. Pricing right is definitely the challenge here.

  8. So happy for you wc1: congrats!
    I guess I consider myself lucky, of sorts, when I bought in Noe 27 years ago. It’s a nice feeling, despite the initial feeling way back the of Noe being “so far out” and putting up with the graffitti back then, a major remodle, and lots of treeless streets. So glad things are different now.
    Now if I can just get my latest project approved: adding on to the garage to accomodate 2 more cars.

  9. I’m with the hints, the worth of after-potential is certainly playing out — add new 536 Alvarado to that, will be interesting to see where that falls (same architect for 435 Alvarado per prelim plans)
    IMO this listing really shows how original features can be re-instated versus obliterated/too modernized (I toured 536 Alvarado when it was on the market back in ~2009/10 and a bit of a dump with asbestos green facade, now feels true to original intent without too much period food)

  10. Is every redone house in SF worth $3+ million? Maybe it reflects more stable regional economic dynamics than a pure bubble… but SF is seeming more and more a reality onto itself.

  11. Does anyone know what is going on with 439 Alvarado? That is really a great lot with potential, I am curious who is going to be doing that project.
    I tried to buy it for a family home but outbid by what was presumably contractors.

  12. Brancusi,
    Is every redone house in SF worth $3+ million?
    If you look at $/sf, you’ll notice that redone places in the 3M range are usually larger than 3000sf.
    SF is seeming more and more a reality onto itself.
    This is how Real Estate cycles work. Some areas recover faster than others for very valid reasons, and soon enough everyone is playing catch-up. This causes a feedback loop and it can feed upon itself.
    The current spill-over into Oakland today is pretty dramatic. Inventory in Oakland has been divided by 5 in one year per motovo.
    Whether this is a bubble 2.0 is debatable. People on the sidelines these past 5 years are met with the new money of FB, AAPL, GOOG, et al. It’s a perfect storm and all rational thinking is going out of the door.

  13. So, any ideas on what the winning bid for 779 Wisconsin was? I heard some pretty crazy numbers–though obviously the offer price was low given Potrero Hill lately (also, I’m not sure the listed square footage was very accurate).
    50% over? 60%, 70%?
    These are silly times…

  14. Rational thinking doesn’t matter when you are rich..or well to do. And it shouldn’t.
    My new neighbors, and good friends who just bought near me WANTED that particular house.
    They overbid, got it and are very happy. And I’m very happy for them.

  15. Rational thinking doesn’t matter when you are rich..or well to do. And it shouldn’t.
    lol. “Money is no issue”. I am sure you love when a client says that.
    Some of that money will grow back. Some won’t. It’s the cycle of wealth. What matters is that it flows through us mere mortals.

  16. What a horserace on that one! Just like 150 Carmel over in Cole Valley.
    I’m curious to see where 348 Diamond closes. This one sat on the market for two whole weeks, so I’m going to guess at most 100-150k over ask. Deep lot, some views, but probably not much you can do to capture them. But a lot of expansion possibility in the back.

  17. Just wanna say …. GREAT JOB Socketsite way to prepare everyone! By, um, saying that it was a myth that folks would be getting paid over the last nine months
    No, great job, really!!! The people who exist in reality appreciate your nonsense! Truly!
    [Editor’s Note: If that’s your takeaway and understanding of what’s driving the market, we might suggest touching up on your reading comprehension and analytic skills.
    In terms of being prepared, there’s a reason we switched from the mainstream focus on unemployment rates to highlighting employment counts back in 2011 (since which point the number of employed in San Francisco has increased by 33,200) and have kept our readers focused on the S&P 500 and key building trends all along.]

  18. You haven’t convinced me. What percent of homes on the market today are being bought by “new money”? Instead of a cherry picked graph of FB stock from the peak like the referenced article had, let’s see one over the last four years, or even S&P 500 vs FB over the last six months.
    There has definitely been a major pickup in the housing market since the FB stock lockup expired, especially in neighborhoods near shuttle stops. Dub dubs patented “lazy GOOG” indicator didn’t predict that.
    The price/sq foot in both Noe and Palo Alto has jumped from around $800 before the lockup to over $1k today. This is a 25% increase in six months, or a 50% YoY rate. No one has been able to give any kind of rational explanation for that. Is it simply one of those “market sentiment has turned” moments? I can believe that, but it is worth probing a bit deeper to see if there is more to it than that. I asked my realtor and he has no idea what is going on.

  19. Wow, according to Redfin, on a price per square foot basis, Noe is now more expensive than The Marina and Pacific Heights and has caught up to Cow Hollow and Palo Alto.
    That is completely bonkers.

  20. Ha! You took pains to indicate that the FB/Web 2.1 payday men was erroneous. You allowed individual posters to post fallacies again and again and again, despite published, cited articles to the contrary. Now the event is effecting the nicer southersiuthern parts of the city and you refuse to admit error? Not having that.

  21. @NVJ–I probably speak for many of us who call Noe home when I say it actually doesn’t seem so bonkers. Many cities over the years have seen the centers of real estate value shift over time. Detroit anyone? Or remember in the early 90’s when rents in downtown NYC were higher than those in mid-town? Mid-town was higher even before 9/11/01…much more so now.
    In SF, the driving force has obviously been the influx of tech money. And perhaps a greater appreciation for simple home, accessible neighbors and walkable lifestyle. And weather. So on all these counts, Noe blows Pac Heights away.
    Add in the fact that very few people commuting from the south bay want to deal with the extra 30+mins of commute time you’d suffer each way fighting through traffic going to Pac Hts.
    And add in the fact that the Mission (and SOMA to a lesser extent) have become ground zero for tech 2.0 in the city, and again, it makes complete sense that the next generation of people who could buy anywhere in the city would choose Noe over Pac Hts.
    Finally, if you look at the noteworthy sales in recent months, it seems those who have made it and are probably ready to rest (e.g Sir Jony Ivey, Mark Pincus) buy in Pac Hts, but those still highly engaged and grinding it out(Zuckerberg, Evan Williams) buy around Noe…and there are a lot more grinders than coasters in SF right now!

  22. hmmm… what will 460 Noe go for when it is finally released to the market?
    The guys that bought that are geniuses.

  23. It all depends on how well they can turn it around.
    A great deal in retrospect is 4058 18th. Even with the numerous strings attached, 1M for 3388sf was a steal, and I believe in much better shape than 460 Noe.
    What’s amazing is that these deals sat around for months and were picked up right when the market turned around 15 months ago..

  24. @Anon–don’t have facts, but $3.6mm seems about right given other recent sales for turnkey renovated SFHs in the area. And that block of Alvarado is great and very family friendly…remodel was done thoughtfully…and telltale sign of off the market after about 47 minutes of listing time.

  25. Just saw that 536 Alvarado did sell for $3.58M…holy smokes. It didn’t list the square footage but that’s just a

  26. I hate it when they do not list the square footage, especially when the place has just been redone and everything had to be very precisely measured.

  27. At the open house, the real estate agent said it was about 3100 sq ft – so selling price is on the high end, even for turnkey properties in Noe. But this one had everything going for it – good layout, fairly tasteful finishes, fabulous backyard, great location, 3/2 plus in-law/guest suite down. So not so surprising outcome.

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