Having tumbled over the past two quarters, as we first outlined earlier this year, the expected value of the Fed’s rate cuts in 2024 is now holding, with the average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage having moderated over the past week, as we projected, and hovering around 7 percent.
And based on our most recent analysis of the futures market, there’s a 90 percent chance that the Fed will adopt a single, quarter-point rate cut by the end of the year, with the probability of at least two rate cuts having inched up to around 55 percent and the probability of no rate cuts (for you) having ticked down from 15 to 10 percent, probabilities that are being priced-in to current rates. We’ll keep you posted and plugged-in.