Having ticked up a percent in February, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – ticked up another three percent in March but with the majority of the uptick (75 percent) having been driven by typical seasonally.
That being said, the “San Francisco” index is still down over 14 percent from last May and 11 percent lower than at the same time last year, representing the largest year-over-year drop for the index, the depth of which is still trending down, in over a decade.
At a more granular level, the index for the least expensive third of the Bay Area market ticked up 2.4 percent in March for a year-over-year decline of 8.5 percent; the index for the middle tier of the market ticked up 3.2 percent with year-over-year decline of 12.2 percent; and while the index for the top third of the market ticked up 3.3 percent, it was down 11.0 percent versus the same time last year, representing the largest year-over-year decline since 2009.
The index for Bay Area condo values, which remains a leading indicator for the market as a whole, inched up 0.6 percent in March but was down 9.2 percent on a year-over-year basis and 10 percent lower than last May, with the first year-over-year drop for Los Angeles since 2019 and New York (up 0.4 percent) poised to go negative as well.
And while the national home price index ticked up 1.3 percent from February to March, the year-over-year gain dropped to 0.7 percent and is poised to turn negative next month, having shed 3.7 percent over the past nine months, with Miami (which remains 7.7 percent higher than at the same time last year) continuing to lead the way with respect to exuberantly indexed home price gains, followed by Tampa (up 4.8 percent) and now Charlotte (up 4.7 percent), but with Washington (down 0.2 percent) and Dallas (down 1.2 percent) having just joined Los Angeles (down 2.9 percent), Denver (down 3.6 percent), Phoenix (down 4.5 percent), Portland (down 4.6 percent), Las Vegas (down 5.1 percent), San Diego (down 5.3 percent), San Francisco (down 11.2 percent) and Seattle (down 12.4 percent) in recording year-over-year declines, all of which were mostly indexed prior to the regional banking meltdown in March.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).