The net number of condos and single-family homes listed for sale in San Francisco (830) inched down 2 percent over the past week, which is typical for the week preceding Super Bowl Sunday, but remains 7 percent higher than at the same time last year, 30 percent higher than prior to the pandemic and 40 percent higher than average over the past decade, driven by a pronounced slowdown in sales activity versus a jump in new listings.

Expect inventory levels to jump over the next few weeks and months, with properties that failed to sell at the end of last year re-listed anew and new listing activity climbing as well, the absorption of which should provide some key insight into the lasting impact of higher rates. We’ll keep you posted and plugged-in.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Fishchum

    I’m already seeing new listings hitting the market that didn’t move last fall.

    • Posted by Ben

      I believe you – but do you have any specific listings?

      • Posted by Fishchum

        Just a couple off the top of my head – 1282 Vallejo #2, 2920 Buchanan #3, 1951 Hayes, 1598 Bay #400.

    • Posted by Ohlone Californio

      Sure. This is the time when listings that don’t sell in the fall hit the market, year in, year out.

      • Posted by Fred Mack

        And this year they will sell for less than anticipated if at all.

        • Posted by Brahma (incensed renter)

          I think the thing that will be different this year is that few homes that don’t sell for the owner’s anticipated price will actually trade hands. When the (potential) seller has a ≤ 3 percent mortgage, they don’t need to actually sell unless they are in a distressed financial state, and given the strength of the job market, there aren’t going to be the level of distressed sales that the folks in the S.F. real estate “game” might expect.

          • Posted by sf

            Strength of the SF job market? Every day I read about thousands of new tech layoffs.

            “It can never happen here!”

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            Did you also read about the unprecedented tech hiring that took place during the pandemic? If so, look at the hiring versus the layoffs numbers.

          • Posted by sf

            Is the trajectory pointing toward layoffs or toward hiring currently? (are more good paying tech jobs currently being added than removed?) I’m openly curious because the news reports about tech layoffs everyday, but I don’t know what the numbers are for hiring. Maybe it is media bias to report drama that is skewing my information?

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            Sometimes plugged in engineer types are kind enough to jump in and update everyone as to the state of the jobs market, and what new hires can expect in this environment. It’d be really cool if one of those kind souls could give us all a late winter market snapshot!

          • Posted by Brahma (incensed renter)

            sf: I don’t have any survey data other than the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating the strength of the SF job market. I think you’re correct that those numbers could be irrelevant to this discussion if good paying tech jobs are being eliminated and poor paying service jobs are being created, in turn creating pointless demand for labor.

            I am just assuming that the folks who have been working locally and had the wherewithal to purchase a home will get a new job, with a similar white collar salary, within a few months of being laid off.

  2. Posted by John Weiss

    There are literally 1,000 layoffs in SF everyday.

  3. Posted by Fred Mack

    The plugged in engineer types are not that interested in SF anymore.

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