Having peaked a few weeks ago at an effective 12-year high, the net number of homes on the market in San Francisco (i.e., inventory/supply) has since ticked down 1 percent to 1,470 but remains 22 percent higher than at the same time last year and over 50 percent higher than prior to the pandemic.
At the same time, the percentage of homes on the market in San Francisco which have undergone at least one reduction has ticked up 3 percentage points to 40 percent, which is 16 percentage points, or nearly 70 percent, higher than at the same time last year and prior to the pandemic having hit, with the average price per square foot of the homes which are in contract now 5 percent lower than at the same time last year and lower than in 2020, 2019 and 2018 as well.
Expect inventory levels to keep inching down through the end of the year if typical seasonality holds, accompanied by a further increase in reductions and unsold properties being withdrawn from the MLS before returning anew in the spring. We’ll keep you posted and plugged-in.
The Case Shiller peak of 05/2022 is roughly 40% higher than early 2020. Prices in the SF bay area seem to have fallen by 20% since the 05/2022 peak.
Question: if the impact of the covid era bubble reversed, would we expect another 20% drop? Or would the 15% compound inflation of the last two years reset the baseline? i.e. how much does CPI eventually translate to home prices?
Where are you getting the sense that home prices in the Bay Area have fallen by 20% since the May 2022 peak?