Having ticked up last week from a two-year low, mortgage loan application volumes to either purchase or refinance a home in the U.S. have slipped a percent on both a seasonally adjusted and absolute basis, with purchase activity down 8 percent on a year-over-year basis and applications to refinance down 49 percent, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

At the same time, the probability of the Fed raising the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) at noon PST today, which would be the first hike since 2018, is holding at around 96 percent and the probability of at least five quarter point rate hikes by the end of the year – which should translate into higher mortgage rates, less purchasing power for buyers and downward pressure on home values – is holding at 95 percent according to an analysis of the futures market.

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