While the Covid-19 case rate in San Francisco has dropped from a rolling average of over 270 new cases per day on August 2 to an average of 230 new cases a day as of August 5, an average which should drop under 200 within the next few days, that’s still up from an average of under 15 new cases per day this past June and a first wave peak of 131 new cases per day in July of last year.
And with hospitalizations lagging case rates, there are now 111 hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in San Francisco, versus only 10 in early June, with 33 people in an ICU.
There were 111 Covid-19 hospitalizations in San Francisco at the peak of the first wave in 2020.
UPDATE (8/18): There are now 115 hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in San Francisco, including 38 people in ICUs. There were 37 ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients at the peak of hospitalizations in July of last year.
UPDATE (8/19): While the average number of daily new COIVD-19 cases confirmed in San Francisco has dropped under 200 (192) for the first time since late July, as we forecast above, there are now 123 hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in San Francisco, including 37 people in Intensive Care.
Even in highly vaccinated San Francisco, there are ~190,000 eligible residents (12+) that haven’t been vaccinated.
That’s a lot of unvaccinated people that can get COVID and end up in the hospital.
COVID is never going away. It will be endemic. The endgame is getting vaccinated (or catching it) and living with it.
Or developing effective therapeutics.
*and
And getting our hospitals equipped to handle the case loads. I agree it’s here to stay and something we have to learn to live with. But I question if we’re there yet. As long as our healthcare systems aren’t stressed, life can continue as normal. But until then we need to do our part to help our medical community. I wish more reporting was done on that metric – how are our doctors and nurses doing?
UPDATE: There are now 115 hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in San Francisco, including 38 people in ICUs. There were 37 ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients at the peak of hospitalizations in July of last year.
In the 5 days since this was published, just ~3000 SF residents have completed vaccination, but due to rounding, 79% of the eligible (12+) population is now vaccinated.
Just ~180,000 unvaccinated, yet vaccine eligible, SF residents waiting for their turn in the hospital now!
Reminder, COVID is never going away. It will be endemic, worldwide. If you’re doing something “until it goes away” you’ll be doing it *forever*.
As of yesterday, 85% of the eligible population in San Francisco (aged 12+) had received at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Outcomes are measurably worse for only one shot takers, but if it makes you feel better, that means only ~120,000 eligible people are entirely unprotected and waiting for their turn in the hospital!
But they’re better than zero-shot takers (or non-takers, I guess is the more accurate term). So try to doubt more: being inoculated isn’t 100% protection… we’re inevitably talking about degrees here.
My point was there are lots of people in SF who are still very available for COVID related hospitalization.
What was your point?
UPDATE: While the average number of daily new COIVD-19 cases confirmed in San Francisco has dropped under 200 (192) for the first time since late July, as we forecast above, there are now 123 hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in San Francisco, including 37 people in Intensive Care.