Having dropped nearly 24 percent last year, the weighted average asking rent for an apartment in San Francisco has effectively held at around $3,100 a month over the past few weeks, with the average asking rent for a one-bedroom hodling at around $2,700 a month and units with at least three bedrooms having actually inched up a percent or two (but still down an average of 24 percent, year-over-year, and over 30 percent below a 2015-era peak).
At the same time, aggressive discounting and incentives to sign a new lease by the end of the year have managed to moderate the vacancy rate for larger rental buildings.
But listing activity for rental units across the city, including one-off rentals, has actually inched up over the past few weeks and there are still over 150 percent more apartments listed for rent in San Francisco than there were at the same time last year and nearly three times as many as there were in January of 2015.
In other words, the current plateau in asking prices might represent more of a psychological barrier or hope than a true market floor and/or clearing price.
Our latest trends analysis is based on pricing data from over 11,000 past and active listings, which is a subset of the data from over 100,000 listings going back to 2004 that we maintain, normalize, and index on a monthly basis. We’ll keep you posted and plugged-in.