Having slipped another 0.7 percent in November, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – has shed 1.4 percent over the past quarter and its year-over-year gain has dropped nearly five percentage points since August to 5.6 percent.
For the second month in a row, and only the second time since 2011, the index for the bottom third of the Bay Area market has dropped over a percent on a month-over-month basis, dropping 1.1 percent in November and pushing its year-over-year gain down from 8.3 to 6.2 percent.
And with the index for the middle third of the market having shed 0.8 percent in November, it is still running 7.2 percent higher on a year-over-year basis but has dropped 4.8 percentage points over the past quarter alone, while the index for the top third of the market only slipped 0.6 percent but its year-over-year gain has dropped to 4.9 percent, versus 9.7 percent just three months before..
At the same time, the index for Bay Area condo values dropped 2.4 percent in November, which is the largest monthly drop since the fourth quarter of 2011, and is now running 4 percent under this past June’s peak but remains 5.3 percent above its mark at the same time last year and 35.2 percent above its previous cycle peak in the fourth quarter of 2005.
And while Las Vegas is still leading the nation in terms of home price gains, up 12.0 percent year-over-year versus a national average of 5.2 percent, Phoenix is now in second place (up 8.1 percent) with Seattle in third (up 6.3 percent). Once again, Las Vegas and Phoenix, two cities which featured rather prominently in the last major downturn, are now leading the way.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).