Pending Home Sales in the U.S. Inch Up, Remain down vs 2017October 25, 2018
Having dropped 1.8 percent in August, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, for which 100 denotes “an average level” of activity, inched up 0.5 percent in September to 104.6 but remains 1.0 percent lower on a year-over-year basis and 6.9 percent below last year’s high of 112.3.
At the same time, while the inventory of homes on the market across the country slipped 1.6 percent in September to 1.88 million, as is typical for this time of the year, inventory levels remain 1.1 percent higher on a year-over-year basis (versus 30 percent higher in San Francisco).
And out West, the Pending Home Sale Index increased 4.5 percent to 93.1 but remains below average and 7.4 percent lower versus the same time last year.
Comments from Plugged-In Readers
Even in Reno’s “hot” real estate market, there are signs of it slowing, sales are down and inventory is up, but median is still up yoy, but down from its new peak. I think interest rates are really starting to cool the housing market.
And as we noted on another thread, related to our coverage of rising inventory levels in San Francisco: “Care to guess what happens to the median sale price when [the] buyers who are most sensitive to interest rate hikes (at the lower end of the market) [start to] exit the market, leading to lower sale volumes, while those who aren’t (at the upper end of the market) continue to buy?”
Median is down from its peak earlier this year. So far seasonality is impacting the median more than interest rates.
Possibly. Reno still needs about 5K/units per year and the new tax law does not really impact Nevada. No income tax to begin with and a median price of under 400K. Everything else being equal Reno’s slowing is likely interest rate driven. Unlike the Bay Area which is interest rate and tax law driven (among other factors). Wish there was more granularity to the numbers – sub-metros w/in the West. As in Reno vs the Bay Area.
Reno’s (Reno/Sparks) September sales were down 28% from September 2017. Meanwhile new listings in September were up 10.3% from Sept 2017. Last year there were a lot of comments that people were not putting their house up for sale because the market was so hot that they couldn’t find a new one. So the market is cooling, its still boiling but no longer overflowing the pot.
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