With plans for a 177-unit development to rise on the Divisadero Touchless Carwash and Roy’s Shell station site at the corner of Divisadero and Oak moving forward, and building on a larger trend, it’s time to see if perceptions match reality with respect to demand for gas and car washes at a station in San Francisco.

Keep in mind there are two other gas stations within 100 feet of this site. And while the exact numbers are out there for those who go digging, we’re not trying to measure your ability to Google. So without further ado, here’s our three-part quiz:

1. How many gallons of gas does Roy’s Shell station pump in a typical month?
2. Has Roy’s pumped more or less gas over the past year as compared to the year before and by what percent?
3. How many cars are washed at the Divisadero Carwash in a typical month? (Bonus points for correctly quantifying the year-over-year trend)

Cheaters will be shamed; answers will be added as an UPDATE on Monday.

UPDATE: As promised, the answers to the above quiz:

1. Roy’s Shell station pumps roughly 61,000 gallons of gas a month
2. That’s an average of 2.8 percent more gallons per month over the past twelve months versus the twelve months before
3. The Divisadero Carwash has averaged around 7,800 washes per month over the past twelve months (which is down 18 percent versus the 12 months before)

While the amount of gas pumped was over estimated by the major of respondents above, we found it more telling that vast majority had assumed the volume had decreased rather than increased over the past year. And the average estimate for the number of washes per month was less than half the actual total, a number which surprised us as well.

And having weighted each of the three questions equally, assigning points based on how close each answer was in the absolute, but also assigning a value of zero for being directionally incorrect on question number two, we’re awarding Jon our plugged-in bragging rights for the day.

1. 1. 150,000 gallons/month
2. 2% decrease from prior year
3. 4,200 car washes / month

2. 1. 60,000 gallons
2. 15% less over last year
3. 900 car washes (Bonus 15% fewer car washes over last year)

3. 1. 95,000 gallons a month

2. 10% decrease as compared to last year

3. 800 car washes per month

4. i would say an increase as the number of cars and number of people driving in SF has been increasing over the last few years per the census data.

5. 1. 65,000 gallons a month.

2. 5% decrease.

3. 1,500 car washes per month.

6. 1. 100 000 / month
2. 5% decrease
3. 4000 car washes / month, 5% increase

7. 1. A lot less than the Arco station next door.

2. 10% less.

3. 3,000 a month and down 5% yoy

8. 1. 200,000
2. 5% less
3. 1,500 cars and down 20% yoy

9. 1. 180,000 gallons/month
2. 3% more
3. 7,500 cars washed per month, up 3%.

10. 1. 260,000 gallons / month
2. 2% less
3. 8,000 cars / month, 5% less

11. 1. 60,000 gallons/month
2. 2% decrease from prior year
3. 2800 car washes / month

12. 1. 140,000 Gallons/Month

2. 4% Less

3. 5,000 Car Washes/Month

13. 1. Anything more than 0 simply demonstrates the stupidity of the populace as the Arco station right next door is way, way cheaper

2. Up 20% – see point 1

3. 8,000/mo, up 10%. I recall an article years ago about how many more car washes LA had than bookstores and thought it was so sad. I suspect that is the case everywhere now.

• On the north end of Marin County off 101 there is a Shell Station that advertises gas for literally 75+ cents per gallon more than the Safeway station next door. The strangest thing I have ever seen.

The mechanics at my dealership argue that Shell gasoline is better than ARCO. Curious how true this is.

• Doesn’t CA have a special blend anyways?

• maybe AMAZON can dispatch drones to wash your car while at work? That will eliminate the disparity!

• Is your time worth \$0? Buying gas at the Arco is both a long wait and typically a cluster****. I’d rather spend the \$2 and save the 20 minutes and aggravation.

• I imagine I’ve filled up at that Arco station well over 100 times. I don’t think I’ve ever waited more than 90 seconds. It does get very busy, but just don’t go at those times.

• Plus at Arco it’s usually cash or debit card (and the latter at a centralized machine, not the pump); I prefer to use a credit card at the pump (and get miles).

14. it does not pump much gas as it charges about \$4.50 a gallon,or about \$3.99 if you get a car wash,i see about 4 cars an hour 6 days a week as it closes one day a week,it washes a lot of cars probably 50 an hour at weekends,ice would have a field day with all the illegals working there,how much is a wash \$100

• It is mean-spirited (and irrelevant to the topic) to guess or presume the immigration status of others.

15. 1. 100,000 gallons/month
2. 5% decrease from prior year
3. 2,400 car washes / month

16. 1. 155,000 gallons/month
2. 2% decrease from prior
3. 8,000 cars washed 8% increase

17. If I recall correctly, shell has ‘corporate’ and ‘independent’ stations – and shell has unfortunately been really poor to their independent network. Many of those independent dealers raise prices out of either desparation to make money or even just to spite shell (as one station did in SF a few years back before having a fire sale on their last day to empty the tank). So I’m assuming this may be one of the latter situations, ergo my answers are:

1) 25000 gal/mo.
2) 80% decrease from prior year
3) 500 car washes/month (80% decrease).

disclosure: I did no research other than popping onto gasbuddy.com to see current pump prices

p.s. is this price-is-right rules? or just closest over or under?

18. The real question is, at this rate how many average miles out of their way will people have to drive to find a gas station in San Francisco?

• If you’re referring to this particular gas station closure then the answer is 0.02 miles at most.

19. UPDATE: As promised, the answers to the above quiz:

1. Roy’s Shell station pumps roughly 61,000 gallons of gas a month
2. That’s an average of 2.8 percent more per month over the past twelve months versus the twelve months before
3. The Divisadero Carwash has averaged around 7,800 washes per month over the past twelve months (which is down 18 percent versus the 12 months before)

While the amount of gas pumped was over estimated by the major of respondents above by an average factor of nearly two, we found it more telling that the vast majority had assumed the volume had decreased rather than increased over the past year. And the average estimate for the number of washes per month was less than half the actual total (a number which surprised us as well).

And having weighted each of the three questions equally, assigning points based on how close each answer was in the absolute (i.e., under or over by 15 percent was counted the same), but also assigning a value of zero for being directionally incorrect on question number two, we’re awarding Jon plugged-in bragging rights for the day. Cheers.

20. 1) The gas is a ripoff there.

2) That the number of carwashes is down y-o-y may have more do to with the weather than anything else.

21. can i get a bit of credit for saying the gas purchases increased?

to me, this should be obvious. the number of cars and driving has increased in SF and number of gas stations decreasing.

• Yes, kudos for that prediction!
Now, who can find out how much gas is sold next door where gas is priced to sell?