The average rate for a 30-year mortgage has ticked up to 3.50 percent, up 6 basis points over the past week but 41 basis points below the 3.91 percent rate in place at the same time last year, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
At the same time, the probability of the Fed enacting a rate hike by the end of the year, a probability which had dropped to below 35 percent at the beginning of August before jumping to 54 percent three weeks ago, has ticked down to 51 percent according to an analysis of the futures market.
So rate hike odds are down and bond yields are up. Hmm.
UPDATE: As (we) expected, the Fed failed to institute a rate hike today but the probability of a move by the end of the year is up to 58 percent and climbing.