Think You Know Noe? Now’s The Time To Tell
January 30, 2015
The Noe Valley home at 56 Clipper hit the market two weeks ago listed for $859,000. And in the words of a plugged-in reader: “No doubt more of the same tired strategy of ‘list low, generate a lot of traffic and bids, break the hearts of many who thought they actually had a chance’ that we’ve seen throughout Noe/Dolores Heights/Bernal last few years.”
Now in contract, we’re offering bragging rights to the person who comes closest to calling the contract price for the property prior to closing. Do keep in mind that 56 Clipper is more of a teardown than a fixer and the listing touts: “generous sized lot with many possibilities for future expansion.”
But the real bragging rights go to the reader who correctly calls the list price, size and style of the home when it returns to the market next year.
Comments from Plugged-In Readers
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1.5 – 1.6 sale, 2 years to return to market as a modern, 3500 sqft house with 3m list.
1.65m buy, return to the market in 1.5-2yrs, at over 4m.
1.5m. Will return in a year or two completely unrecognizable and bearing no appearance to the existing facade.
1.2M buy, 2.7M relist
Sells for 1.8mm. Good neighborhood, has curb cut. Savvy buyer argues hard that the existing structure is not historic (stucco front steps are awful, for example). Yet the planner sees the pretty little roof peak and pushes back. Goes to historic review, but someone knows someone and the normal 6 month process gets pushed to 1 month. New owner also argues (perhaps reasonably) for poor condition approaching condemnation conditions.
Demo permit gets approved.
18 months later, I don’t think we do condos here, we do a big SFR with modern finishes, 3,000 sf, priced at $1,200 per foot = $3.6mm.
Design challenge is how to make the new modern place look right in the context of the street. It will look out of place a little and probably make some sort of neighborhood design guideline compromises at the behest of planning that falsify the intent of the owner and architect.
Purchased by a couple with 2 kids and a dog. They walk to coffee, everyone wins.
1.8mm dirt
$100K Plans and permits
$1mm to build ($1,000,000/3000sf = $333psf)
undefined financing sales costs etc.
—————-
$3.6mm – 2.9mm or so, profit +/- $700K, could grow if construction costs kept lower.
Can you list a few builders who do modern “renovations” at $333spf? Thanks.
Nope! Why would I share that?
This type of response is indicative of exactly how the city is changing – everyone in it for themselves. This reminds me of the type of person in college who would sabotage fellow students just to get ahead in class.
So your classmates who didn’t provide their answers in internet chat forums were saboteurs? !Je suis coupable!
It would actually do a huge disservice to everyone involved to provide a “price point” reference. Each contractor gets to set her own prices. The same job for client A might be twice as difficult for client B. I might be quoted twice as much as you by the same person depending on how we come across. Maybe you have lots more work for the contractor so she’s willing to take a different margin knowing that next year there will be more work. Maybe not. Lots of factors affect contractor pricing. Go read some crazy reviews on Yelp. Go ask your friends. Go to RS Means and buy a book about how much things supposedly cost in the construction industry. Ask your uncle whose fishing buddy used to be a contractor. Nothing anyone tells you will matter until you have a biddable scope of work, a clearly-defined project, and a counterparty who is capable of doing the work.
1.2m close, 18 mo demo/build, 3450 sqft, contemp w/ modern flair, rear/roof deck, staged by buttercup. If market holds, list 3.475m, close 3.625m. If rates rise and market waivers, list 2.875m, one price reduction to 2.75m, close for 2.7m. A lot can happen in 18 months…
hedgy, you have to change your numbers. they are the exact same as mine listed above.
$1.26/2.7
Zillow has 1.37
$1,450,000 is my guess!
$1.25 million (good biking, mediocre views) reno will take 3 years, 3,500+ sqft, 4 to 6 million new asking.
1.65 close. More than 2 years but less than 3 for construction. Kennerly or Pashelinsky-like design depending on developer. 3,820 sqft, 5.5 million ask.
Obviously no one in this crowd watches The Price Is Right…
Bob, I’m going to go with $1
There’s almost always a contestant like that, too…
Bob, I’ve been waiting to say this all my life…….”420!!!”
I used to! So I say – $1,250,000.01
Strategy is everything.
My Grandmother used to watch The Price Is Right every morning. But then again she was in her late 90’s!
Just to stir things up a little, I’m gonna guess 1.35, with a return in 3 years, but as 2 units in the back house, middle garden style. There’s enough sun for everybody there.
1.3mm. Historic so they will have to keep facade and go through the 311 process to add a 3rd floor. Will take 1.5 years for permitting and discretionary review (neighbor next door with dormors will oppose it as well as other neighbors since will be taller than other homes on the street) and 1.5 years to build. Permits/architectural will be $125k and construction/design $1.5mm so almost $3mm all in. Will sell the 3500 ft single family house for $3.7mm making $500k after staging/real estate brokerage costs. Not that great of return over 3 years.
^ tend to agree, there. All of these cowboys are betting on $4M+ nowadays. First block of Clipper? North Side of the street? I like this one for about 900K, and it’ll probably get 1.35 or so.
Dormer house doesn’t look like such a prize itself, but that may not affect DR outcome.
Ah, another future Apple Store.
Ha! Best comment. That is what will likely happen.
1.24m sale. If developed 3300 sqft house $3.5m list
41 Clipper immediately across the street just got practically rebuilt, new floors and an all new modern facade. It was originally about the same size as this property, on nearly the same size lot. I’m not sure if it sold with plans already approved which would up the value, but it sold in April last year for 4.2 million!! So even though the people above are probably right on with their 1-1.5 valuations for the house as is (and even that shows how crazy the market is right now), and I expect to be roundly mocked– I am going to go for it and say 3-4 million, as is.
This is not to mock, but to simply point out that that’s insane.
It will sell for 1.15M. Anything over, is unlikely.
This will be great. Not too far from my house and I can drive by and watch the new house get built.
soccermom, not everyone has the time to spend years dealing with the planning department and their processes. It is clear you hate developers but there is no ignoring that people want move in ready places. This is a dump. There is little historic value in this place. I’m not sure what you are getting at but if you are suggesting people should live in shacks of disrepair then I would love to see your home. A couple with two kids and a dog will not inhabit this place unless they are psychotic like you.
Hi k – I am not sure what gave you the impression that I said any of those things /should/ happen and I hardly have any hate for developers. One might even surmise that I am able to articulate some of the nuances of the planning process for profit-driven home expansion/renovation process in San Francisco based on my own personal experience(!)
You can be sure however, that some of those planning challenges /will/ happen so I hope you haven’t bid on this home under the assumption that knocking it down to rebuild will be ‘quick’ or ‘easy.’
Cheers!
I have to think clearing price is between $1.6-$1.7mm minimum (with good chance for surprise to the upside), in part b/c the inventory of true tear-down fixers is so small right now, developers have access to such cheap and plentiful capital, and the spec risk is so small given the pattern of such successful flips in the area (just down the street on Clipper, one block over on Jersey). Even if it’s 18-24 months in the turnarond, should be easy to get to 3500+sq ft and a list price close to $4mm if current market trends hold about where they are.
Pending
Since I’m the mystery buyer, I’ll share my numbers:
$1,368,888 buy
$3,988,988 relist
$5,500,001 close
Ta-da! 🙂
love all the eights.
I think I’ve won the preliminary round, yes?
I’ll go lean and mean — everything I learned about Noe I learned from sparky-b (and Socketsite).
1. NO envelope change — back on the market by next Spring for sure, possibly sooner. (less than year)
2. Four, six, eight, lets all excavate.
3. Gratuitous ground level (sunken) patio. Skybridge from second level over patio to backyard. Fireplace to warm things up.
4. New subterranean studio north of the the sunken patio.
5. One car garage on the bottom level and excavate the entire ground level to get more headroom for the main house.
6. Sell for $2.5million.
(sigh, maybe it would work in 2011, but I’m not sure about the current environment.)
$1.425M, back in two years as a 3300 sq foot modern house that sells for $4.1M.
closed for $1.38MM
Zillow wins! Beat the humans.
I, for one, welcome our new computer-realtor overlords.
I said 1.35. Heh. Wow, the market is so nuts even Zestimates get it right.
Zillow states that their nationwide median error rate is 7.9%. They state that half of their estimates are within 7.9% of the price and the other half are off by greater than 7.9%.
For SF specifically they list an 8.8% median error and only a 2-star accuracy level (“Fair Zestimate” as they call it).
UPDATE: Having returned to the market listed as a contemporary 2,500-square-foot, 4-bedroom home for $3.495 million last year, 56 Clipper has just been re-listed at $3.349 million.