Purchased for $1,560,000 eight months ago, the single-family Noe Valley home at 152 Clipper Street has just returned to the market listed for $1,549,000.
While short-term holds make it difficult to recoup hefty transaction costs, they do provide a nice measure of the market, apples-to-apples style (albeit in this case, with $17,000 of permitted pest work completed in-between sales).
If you think you know Noe, now’s the time to tell. And with respect to the reason for selling, word on the street is that it’s related to work.
The sale of 152 Clipper closed escrow on Friday with a reported contract price of $1,680,000, up 7.7 percent versus its August 2011 sale, up 11 percent on an annualized basis for the remodeled three-bedroom (and bath) home “in the heart of Noe Valley.”
∙ Think You Know Noe? Now’s The Time To Tell [SocketSite]
Wasn’t there a contest here?
Yeah. Who won The Internet?
Man, that is a big number for that location. I guess the proximity to 24th street trumps being on Clipper street or being farther out in the flats.
Just think if this place was on the “inside” of Clipper. And it’s still a while until FB money comes in full force. Buy in ’09 or be priced out forever???
It’s got parking, three bedrooms all on the same floor, it’s clean, decent sized lot, decent neighborhood, I guess the sky’s the limit. I think the buyers are going to see it worth a great deal more in future. The low for these types of solid sfh properties was spring 2009 as accurately determined by the guy you all call fluj.
Awesome! Only cost them about 6,000 a month to live there. A steal!
Too bad everything in SF that is not a high-end 3 or 4 BR single family house in Noe Valley continues to fall! But for those about 30 people that bought one of those in the last couple years, congrats!
Day-O. I also noticed that remodels with “lots of storage via pulldown attic access” are also selling well. Congrats to Da Family for hitting Noe selling season in full stride. Looks good. How much of the wood work was original (is the crown molding new throughout)?
unwarrantedinlaw, I believe it was Sparky who called bottom in March 2009.
Nevertheless, a short hold doesn’t tell much about the market. Maybe the seller got a good deal last year because of seasonality or simply lack of motivated competition. Maybe there were too many places for sale in the summer with not enough buyers. There are more good news both locally and nationally which could change the psychology. This spring supply is more scarce I think than what I have seen in the past 3 years (unscientific rule of thumb).
Many possible causes, but still a positive outcome for the seller.
In spring 2009 it was really ugly. I always smile when I see one of the First Republic ads that paper the town, often with pictures of happy customers. I found a property back then that I thought was dirt cheap and went to them for a loan, but they grabbed me by the collar and threw me out. You want a LOAN!!! Are you freakin’ crazy?
The same day, they fired the loan officer I had been working with for many years. First Republic was effectively bankrupt and in no mood for talking to customers. The Fed bailed them out with your money and so they’re papering the town again with their happy ads about how much their customers love them. I had to get the loan from another bank. Tell you what, when a bank doesn’t have money to loan and their employees don’t know if they’ll have a job tomorrow, they’re not too friendly.
EBGUy,
The facade, the dining room, and some of the livingroom wood work is original. The casings and base are matched to what was there. Crown is new everywhere.
@anon: How do you figure $6000 a month?
financing costs + buying/selling costs + property taxes + insurance – capital gains.
$6000 a month seems resonable rent
financing costs: assuming 1.2M financing @4% for 2/3 year: 32K
selling costs = 80K
property taxes = 17K * 2/3 = 11.3K
insurance = 4K
capital gains = 120K
I see #s are balancing themselves.
Where are these 6K/month coming from?
Heck, may as well assume a 2% jumbo mortgage as you’re as likely to get that. And also assume negative opportunity costs for the $360,000 assumed cash down (probably would have shorted the S&P 500 and paid big while missing out on 15% gains), and come up with a big net monthly gain!
Even doubling financing costs doesn’t not bring us close to 6K/month. I’d love to see your #s.
The 8/2/11 transaction was a cash sale.
Monthly costs:
1.560*(0.04/12)*.85 tax deduction adjustment=$4400/mo
$1560*.78 (tax deduction adjustment) =$1217/mo
Insurance/Alarm: $300/mo
I get $5917, a little high because the downpayment opportunity cost is probably not 4%, so call it $5800. Add in a gardener, some minor maintenance item, and $6000 is probably not too far off.
lol, you forgot transfer tax, financing costs, and the pest work they did, which about balances out the gain when you include the selling fees.
cash sale vs. financing makes no difference in this low interest rate environment. Still have real opportunity costs to account for.
Point is that even with this top 0.01% outcome, result was an okay deal but nothing to write home about at all. Real estate is a lousy “investment” because the transaction and holding costs are so high.
Meh. You say what you want to say regardless of outcome. Nobody talked investment but you, with your snide scare quotes And anyway, this house rents for more like 7K last summer or now.
Knowing it was all cash, it changes the equation by a bit, and yet, with a very short hold (something even the most bullish of the bulls will always advise you against), they spent less than a rent. well played.
Excellent! We’ve come ’round to where I started! They got a steal! Saved about $1000 a month over renting. Not bad for a best in a thousand sale outcome.
Back to the contest … “94114” – who guessed 10% over – comes closest. Most of us seriously under-shot. I’m very surprised.
“best in a thousand”
Please elaborate. I only get best in 20 😉
“Real estate is a lousy “investment” because the transaction and holding costs are so high.”
If SS would just add this as its tagline half these comments could go away.
The person looking to buy in Noe right now, and there are a lot of them, does not concern themselves with what happened at the opportunity cost/deduction/transaction cost level. They are going to look at this place and say “Noe valley is up 11% since last year and the FB steam roller is coming. Damn, Noe is hot, hot, hot. Honey can we be look at some other neighborhoods?”
um, sparky-b, even accepting your premise, you do realize you just explained why Noe Valley prices won’t continue to outperform the rest of SF, right?
I assume you took something other that Realtor Fantasy Economics 101, in which one pretends that substitution does not exist and the only competition is among buyers? As to why prices are in the sixth year of falling? Just black magic I guess.
Well…….don’t forget that 1566 Sanchez just sold for $400k over the asking of $2.4m.
I’m still amazed and I live here.
As to why prices are in the sixth year of falling?
Nationwide, yes. CA, probably. SF, I do not think this is correct.
Then again, nobody ever said blanket statements had to be backed up with facts (and by this wild blanket statement I rest my case).
anon,
You know perfectly well that we did not have to take Economics in our realtor school. But to answer you question, no I do not think I explained why Noe won’t continue to outperform.
But why wouldn’t it continue to outperform?
– good transit options
– high walk score
– good retail/shopping/eating
– plenty of “family sized” housing, but not full of mansions
– parking is not horrible
Just some of the pluses; lots more I’m sure.
futurist,
Well, no market can outperform forever. In RE all markets are connected, either closely or loosely. Once the disconnect is too big, laws of attraction do their job.
I have no idea what your last sentence meant.
But, no, I didn’t say “forever”, but I suspect for a long time to come. IMO.
RE anon’s comment that this is a “top 0.01% outcome”, I’d say more like a top quartile at best. Check out stats on redfin or trulia and you’ll see for SFH’s sold in Noe over the last month or so, selling price psf is at ~$940. This house cleared just above that, but not insanely so. And interestingly, if you look at the houses that make up the $940psf trailing month average, very few were within walking distance of 24th (a key attribute for moms with strollers and/or the techbus commuting crowd), so you could say that a place near Clipper/Sanchez pricing at nearly $980psf is a good but not off-the-charts outcome. I predict a truly silly season in July/August with $1000psf sales common when the FB IPO is done, school is just around the corner and already tight inventory is even tighter.
I accept you took something added that Realtor Fantasy Economics 101, in which one pretends that barter does not abide and the alone antagonism is a part of buyers? As to why prices are in the sixth year of falling? Just atramentous abracadabra I guess.
Double digit price inflation. It’s back!
Futurist,
My last sentence means that if price differences are to big between lower and upper segments, values will have a tendency to correct back towards each other. Say a prime area gains 10%/y and a less prime gains only 3%/y, there’s a point where either the lower segment will climb up or the upper segment will either stagnate, decrease or increase at a lesser clip. There’s a relationship between all local markets, either tight or loose. There’s just so much premium people will accept to pay to live in prime SF.
Well……those theories seem just too absolute to me. I’m not a real estate expert, but my thoughts are more flexible.
We don’t really that “there’s just so much premium” people will pay.
Why did 1566 Sanchez sell for $400k over asking just recently? I have no idea.