Speaking of new developments at the mouth of Mission Creek and around AT&T Park, as we wrote in November:
Purchased for $780,000 in August 2006, the “almost new” 188 King Street #309 returned to the market this past May asking $850,000. Reduced to $750,000 in June and then $629,000 in September, yesterday the asking price was reduced to $599,000.
A sale at $599,000 would represent a 23% drop in value for this South Beach condo over the past three years.
Two days ago the sale of 188 King Street #309 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $575,000 (26% under its purchase price in 2006).
∙ Mission Creek Then And Now (And Remembrances Of RVs Past) [SocketSite]
∙ The Scoop On 188 King Street: Now Selling Leasing [SocketSite]
∙ Apples To Apples For 188 King: 2006 To 2009 (Versus 2006 To 2008) [SocketSite]
26% drop from 2006 seems about right. I saw this place when it came on the market asking $599k. The finishes are nice, but the place is so small. The space between the kitchen and window doesn’t leave much room for furniture.
How many 1300 square 2/2/1 condos can one city absorb? And concentrate them all in one spot. Seems like bad planning to me.
^ Since there are 6.8 billion people in the world and everyone wants to live here we can absorb about 3.4 billion new units.
Who said anything about a 2/2/1? These knuckleheads paid $780k for a 1BR in 2006. They probably are lucky to have found a knife catcher/tax credit seeker this month.
But yeah, if only their realtor could have warned them that a bubble was apparent…
This may be pretty close to an equilibrium valuation. Assuming a place like this would rent for about $3000/month, the 15x annual rent rule of thumb suggests a market value of about $540,000. When you factor the extremely low interest rate that the buyer probably got on his/her mortgage, this may in fact have been a very sensible purchase (assuming s/he plans to live here for a while).
Kathleen,
If this is a ~750sqft 1 bedroom selling for ~$800/sqft, then I’d say the city can absorb many more just like it.
“15x annual rent rule of thumb suggests a market value of about $540,000”
Yeah, that all sounds good until the property tax and HOA fees are due… And $3k rent for a small 1BR is one hell of a stretch in this neighborhood.
At just north of $500 psft, it’s great to see another stop in the continued march towards $400 psft. Remember the $600 psft “floor” from 6 months ago?
And this building isn’t the Beacon or the Palms.
Assuming this is the same floorplan as #409 and #509, this deal closed at $631 psft.
Yeah, I haven’t seen any verifiable sq ft figure. Nothing personal but, I think it’s better to only work with numbers you can verify, and take realtor recollections(where the 1,100 # seems to come from) with a huge grain of salt.
This is a LOFT. I have trouble using it as a comp to a “real” one bedroom (no privacy; kitchen smells and living room noises wafting up to the bedroom; etc). This doesn’t negate the main point about the price drop, but I’d be interested in realtors’ comments about using a loft as a comp to a real one-bedroom unit in the same area.
For what it’s worth, this neighborhood is hecka fun.
Assuming a place like this would rent for about $3000/month
And if you do, please give me his email address. I have a great investment opportunity for him.
@J: Paul is usually pretty good. The listing is below.
Assuming the downstairs is 16.5×46 and the upstairs bedroom is 16.5×16.5 (it looks pretty square and I can see 6 doors. Assuming 30″ doors and another 3″ of wall space per door, that would be 16.5′, so I doubt I’m off by much), that’s 1031 square feet. Now add another 80 square feet for the upstairs bath and I get 1111 as a back of the envelope calculation. Pretty much like Paul said.
$575K/1111= $518 psft. It could be a little more, or a little less. I doubt it’s as high as $631.
Nice building with reasonable dues.
http://www.188kingstreet.com/default.aspx?pp=948572
I doubt it’s 16.5 feet wide. Those would be very wide sliding doors if that’s the case. Probably more like 14 feet.
Which, looking at the floorplans, would make #309 924 square feet on my ‘back of the envelope’ calculation.
Very similar to that 911 square feet that units #409 and #509 are.
And then $631 psft.
But since none of us actually know, why don’t we stick with what actually is fact, as opposed to conjecture? Eh tipster?
I have been in this unit several time.
I looked at it very closely when it came on the market at $599k, and the unit is nowhere near 1,000sqft. At most it is 900sqft. I had the documentation of square footage at some point, and I think it was something like 875sqft, but lets just round up to 900sqft. To give you an idea, its about the size of the 1/2 units at 200 Townsend, which are actually wider than this unit at 188 King.
At 900sqft and a purchase price of $575k, that is $638 psft.
And just so you know, its the smallest unit/floorplan in the building. There are 1/2s in the unit with a “catwalk” that are larger – this wasn’t one of them.
If you tried going to the 188 King website, you will notice that it says sizes range from around 900sqft to 1,300sqft.
The nice thing about the unit was the fact that there were 2 full baths, and the fact that you had a nice look at AT&T park.
So for those of you who think we are at $500psft range, sorry this isn’t the comp that supports your argument.
This would rent for $3,000 a month? A friend of mine must have quite a deal since she pays $700 less on her rental.
I know two separate people who rent 1bdrooms in this building (both on higher floors) for under $2000/month (1 for $1800 and the other for $1925)
Sure Spencer?
Can you prove this? No way the developer rented these units for under $2k!
I don’t see how 3k/month would be a stretch here. My buddy was paying $2150 for under 500 sq feet next door. The day he moved out there was a new renter moving in fwiw…
Definitely seems like a stretch to me. Look at craigslist — tons of large 2BR top floor full flats for under $2250 in convenient and desirable areas (Noe, Castro, Dolores Hts, Lower Pac Hts).
Somarez — when did your friend start and end his lease and how do you know that the person who moved in after wasn’t paying less?
Not saying it isn’t true but I’ve never understood why someone would pay a premium to live in one of these places.
@Shza: I just looked at Craigslist for apartments in that area – many things well over $3000 for 2/2. The one thing that I found that was close was a 2/2 at the Brannan for $3000.
Now if you are looking for flats in old crappy victorians, without parking, that is one thing, but quality 2/2s are not around for $2250 with parking
There is always a wide variety of quality, and a wide range of landlord’s rent expectations on Craigslist. MOST of them seem unrealistic and end up letting properties sit vacant before lowering their asking rent.
And let’s just assume when someone claims 1BRs go for $3k, they are including parking, top floor, premium building, etc. When someone claims they are going for $2k, you can assume they don’t include parking, are tiny, loud, etc.
188 King seems to have nicer than average finishes. So even if SOMA 1BRs are averaging $500/sq ft at some point, that doesn’t mean units in this building won’t command more.
And as far as not using a loft as a comp to a traditional 1BR, it all comes down to personal preference. How is privacy going to be an issue for a 1BR/loft occupant??? Are you going to live there with someone else who you don’t want to see you naked or something???
^^^
J, I’m thinking of when I go to bed on a weeknight at 9:30, but the spouse likes to stay awake until 11 watching TV in the living room, especially when he decides to fry a late-night hamburger; or is watching a game on the weekend with a couple of friends while I want to work on the computer for a couple of hours or read, etc, etc. It’s why we wouldn’t even look at a loft when we bought. Yep, it’s a preference. But I guess it would work as a bachelor pad, or for Siamese twins.
Yeah, it does take more consideration. I know I wouldn’t put up with the other person staying up late making a bunch of noise.
I used to live in a large 2/2 with parking in a newish building in Lone Mountain for $2600 (rented in 2006). I actually moved out as they were renting the ones that became available in the building for $2200 (late 2009) and they would not drop the rent. It is possible to find 2/2 with parking that is not a dump.
I live here. Some of what people are saying here is hilarious (Spencer especially). I don’t need to bother with anyone and their “knowledge” of the building. Have fun.
I rent a 1 bd in the building next door (170 off third) and pay $2,450 w/ parking. An identical unit a floor above mine rented for $2,500 recently. A 2/2 in the building goes for around $3K/month.
I looked at a number of different buildings before I signed my lease. There are better deals elsewhere, but these are fairly standard rates for semi new construction in S. Beach/Soma.
@dakota: Good info. Those rents seem about right.
So let’s say this should rent for about $2,600/month (given the extra bathroom).
With the 2600 figure and the (gasp) industry approved standard of enticing debt slavery at 15X annual rent, this places the “fair value” at around 450K. I wouldn’t pay more than 300K personally and wouldn’t rent it for more than 1700. But that’s just the opinion of a penny pincher.
@lol: Are you in a rent controlled place? If so, imagine, if you are not in a rent-controlled place, and had to rent a market price property, you may have a different tune.
SFRE,
Yes, I am rent controlled, but very close to market rate. I see very few 1BRs over 2500 in any neighborhoods. SOMA has a few on CL, but take into account condo flippers who got stuck into a 25% downturn. A colleague of mine had to move out last month for job reasons and had to rent out his Mission Bay condo he bought 2 years ago. He couldn’t sell without losing most of his sizable downpayment. He had to rent. He gets 3K for a roughly 1200sf 3/2. He’s losing a bit on the rent every month with HOAs, taxes, …
@lol: Fair enough. Good for you if you were able to get into rent controlled. I would do the same if I could, and if there was something that I liked.
I just looked at CL for SOMA/SB, and there are 1/1s under $2500, but many of them do not include parking and are pretty small. I would say the average is around $2,600, and the split is about 55/45 over $2,500.
@dakota:
So you are saying your apartment has the same features as mine, and I pay an extra for no reason? What, the only difference is I have one more bathroom? Please.
ha – I have no idea what your unit looks like. And I wasn’t responding to your comment. I was just making a general statement about rents in the area.
Rent controlled units can be nice to have but they are [not] a holy grail, I was forced out of two of them during my time as a renter.
Whatever happened to the $600 psft floor? Here’s a top floor condo in the Haight just off Haight/Ashbury for $285 psft. For another $50 psft, you could have something very nice and very new. $335 psft seems a long way away from $600.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/534-Ashbury-St-94117/home/1402461
For Sale (MLS-listed)
$581,298
534 Ashbury St San Francisco, CA 94117
Beds: 3
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 2,039
$/Sq. Ft.: $285
Lot Size: –
Property Type: Flat, Condominium, Top Floor
Style: Edwardian
Year Built: 1904
Community: Haight Ashbury
Tipster, did you even look at the photos of that dump? And only 1 bathroom. That place will be lucky to sell for $500K and it’s no reflection on or comp for a modern and well appointed place in a good neighborhood.
If it sells for $500K, you put $50K into the kitchen, $30K into the bath, spend $20K spiffing up the floors, and you’d have something pretty nice for under $300 psft. Depending on the layout, with that much space, you might be able to add a second bath and maybe you’d be up to $325 psft. Seems pretty doable for that. Not a palace but for $325 psft, you’d have something very large, modern, and very affordable.
Don’t want to inject myself into the conversation of whether 534 Ashbury could be renovated out of being a dump or not, but did you see the foreclosure price on it?
$783,175! Can you say cash-out refi? Their 2009 tax value was $176,851. The prior owner completely fleeced Chase on this one when he refied. There was at least one refi at the end of 2005, not sure if there was more than one.
I assume it’s bad photography that makes it look much smaller than the 2000+ sqft listed.
There was at least one refi at the end of 2005, not sure if there was more than one.
Need you ask? A first and second from WaMu was recorded for 534 Ashbury on Aug. 16, 2007. Mark my words, WaMu + 2007 = imminent foreclosure.