CFAH

3577 Pacific Avenue (www.SocketSite.com)

As its MLS listing was simply withdrawn on 7/10/09 without mention of a sale, we missed it when 3577 Pacific closed escrow on 7/8/09 with a recorded contract price of $4,900,000.

3577 Pacific Living

Once again, purchased pre-renovation for $2,225,000 in August 2005; returned to the market post-renovation in October 2008 asking $7,700,000; reduced to $6,950,000 three days later; reduced to $5,995,000 this past February; and then reduced to $5,650,000 in May before being withdrawn from the MLS without a reported sale or contract price in July.

And as it looked “before”:

3577 Pacific Avenue: Original Exterior (Image Source: MapJack.com)

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by tipster

    If sleepiguy’s estimate of over $2M on the remodel is accurate, the numbers worked something like this:
    2005 Buy: 2.225
    Remodel : 2.000 (ultra low end of estimate)
    Hold : 0.440 (last two years only – this couldn’t have been a 4 year project. Figure includes prop tax and interest)
    Selling : 0.350 (realtor, staging, etc)
    ———————-
    Total : 5.2
    Sale : 4.9
    Ouch! They even got the benefit of an early buy. That was a great benefit for the buyer – didn’t have to do anything and the seller basically paid him for the remodel. You gotta love that!
    Couldn’t get any more “real SF” and they still lost money on a great remodel.

  2. Posted by whatever

    Maybe lost money, but don’t cry for Mitch. He (and former partner Gary) made plenty when the market was good.

  3. Posted by eddy

    What was the price per sq ft on the sale?

  4. Posted by ex SF-er

    Selling : 0.350 (realtor, staging, etc)
    a question on this, perhaps Paul or anonn would know. Do people really pay 5-7% commission on properties that cost this much? it seems rather ridiculous to pay someone $300,000 to sell this piece of property on your behalf.

  5. Posted by sleepiguy

    Did I say 2 million? That might’ve been a little high… Maybe 1.5 to 2. Did anyone see this place? I can’t tell from the pictures if the interior finishes justified my earlier estimate. Maybe that’s why it fell out of escrow the first time. It’s not impossible that the developer broke even on it, I guess. At least it sold…
    And I would really be surprised if people in the high-end paid the full 5% or 6% commission to their realtors. A few obvious ones won’t budge on their commission, of course, but most are fairly reasonable. Make of that what you will.

  6. Posted by lyqwyd

    I find it highly unlikely that they paid more than 3% commission total, even that is probably high for an experienced re-modeler.
    High price sales will generally get a significantly lower commission rate, especially if the seller does a lot of transactions.

  7. Posted by tipster

    The bigger problem is why they paid someone as much as they did to help them chase the market down for a year. I’ll pay for great advice, what I don’t want to pay for is lousy advice.
    Perhaps the seller was stubborn, but I’m pretty stubborn too. For example, I have a decorator who is fantastic. I initially hate almost all of her ideas but I’ve worked with her long enough to know that she’s usually right, and so when she tells me to do something, I clench my teeth and do it. In the end I know I’ll be happier and I always am. I pay whatever she charges and she’s worth every penny, but I also trust her judgment. Sometimes, she doesn’t even ask me: she just buys some expensive piece she sees. She’ll call me up and tell me she’s bringing it over: “Trust me” she says. I do and I’m glad I do.
    In contrast, here, if you hire someone, and are paying them $100K to sell a home (probably less, I assume high end developers aren’t paying the full 5%), and you don’t trust their judgment when they tell you to price it at $5.5M rather than $7M, you need to hire someone else. And if they didn’t tell you to price it initially at $5.5M, you need to hire someone else. So either way, I’d tell this guy to hire someone else. He left at least a half a million on the table chasing the market down. There isn’t any excuse for that. Find someone who you trust and then take their advice. And if they can’t argue their point to convince you, find someone who can.

  8. Posted by anonn

    What’s the point in responding in a thread where Tipster crunches numbers? It’s a joke. Pass.

  9. Posted by Paul Hwang

    Yes, some people do pay the full commission 5-7%. If you have an existing relationship with someone, you may not.
    Many times owners have unrealistic valuations of their homes and these can turn into long drawn out transactions where the realtor has invested tens of thousand of dollars into the presentation and marketing with no favorable outcome in site. The experienced realtor will not take less than full commission or simply turn these listings down.

  10. Posted by kepp it real

    A person recently posted:
    “i looked up schadenfreude in webster’s and it said: see Tipster”
    To which “Tipster” replied:
    “Nope. I’m a businessman, and I hate to see businesspeople like this poor seller work hard and lose money. What happened is already done and over with for this poor real estate owner. It doesn’t help me in any way when he ends up losing money or even working for free or almost free.
    The reason I post is to help make sure that others don’t fall into the same trap. People watched “Flip this house” and figured it was a sure bet. It isn’t. Even people buying foreclosures on the courthouse steps are losing money.
    I’d rather see that effort and hard work go into something productive. It’s good to see a house restored, but bad to see, as Sparky so clearly stated, pay the kind of money this person paid, only to watch him essentially hand all of his profit to the person who sold it to him. The current seller should have seen what Sparky saw: “$1.2M for a fixer that won’t get you view, yard, and/or awesome hood when your done = Bad call.”
    Sparky could have bought it, but wisely walked away because the price wasn’t right. That’s my point in illustrating how much trouble this owner is going to be in. I don’t want to see him or her lose money, but the good result from this is everyone will be able to see how much was made or lost and then act accordingly. You see a fixer for that price, you walk away from it. If you can get it for less, go ahead, otherwise, let some other person waste their time on it. That other person will be too busy screwing around with this place when another appropriately priced place comes along, and so your competition is reduced for the profitable projects.
    My name is in the dictionary under the term: “smart business”, period.”
    It’s so characteristic of you to “leap out of the gate” with this Pacific Street post, and after comparing it to the above reply, I discovered an additional dictionary term for you – “chameleon”.
    We’re tired of you – why don’t you give it a rest for a while.
    [Editor’s Note: Attack the argument not the individual.]

  11. Posted by tipster

    “It’s so characteristic of you to “leap out of the gate” with this Pacific Street post”
    I posted that at the end of the February 13, 2009 thread, and the editor moved it to here and used it to start a new thread. That was hardly “leaping out of the gate” ten months after the thread was posted. Perhaps you should try a different insult. That one didn’t make any sense.

  12. Posted by anonconfused

    Is living at “the wall” THAT desirable? Pacific becomes quite narrow at this location and though the view is stunning, I would prefer being a block or two south. I think the restoration and design work are excellent, but should it have been at this exact property? Still, Tipster is right in that you “Couldn’t get any more “real SF””.

  13. Posted by bobTrouser

    Alex from theFrontsteps posted this in one of the original threads….
    “Now that the price is dropping, I can share a little insight. I was at the playground across the street from this house and they were putting the finishing touches before coming to market. I yelled across the street, “Hey, you guys going to sell the home?”
    A blunt reply, “Yes.”
    My follow up…”What are you asking? $4.5 or $5 Million?” Mind you I had never set foot in the front door.
    The reply, “You’re kidding. Come have a look.”
    “After a tour and while inside I was made to feel about 1 inch tall, chided, and asked, “Still think $5M?”
    In my head, I was thinking, “Actually, yes,” but I told him, “No…thanks for the tour”, and started walking out.
    While leaving was whispered to, “Expect it to sell around $7,000,000.” ”
    [Editor’s Note: The original comment on the “Exciting New Price” post.]

  14. Posted by keep it real

    Well well well…..very interesting.
    OK – I will take you up on that challenge “Tipster” as long as you’ve dragged the “Editor” into this – here goes the “different insult” you’ve suggested I try….get ready….here it comes…
    “YOU ARE THE EDITOR, TIPSTER”
    I hope that didn’t sting too bad.
    [Editor’s Note: “tipster” is not an editor. (And as far as we’re concerned, calling someone an Editor of the site would be praise.) Now back to 3577 Pacific…]

  15. Posted by eddy

    Are you implying that Tipster is the Editor???? No chance.

  16. Posted by anon

    I see the regulars have jumped into the sandbox and started throwing sand in others’ faces. What’s next: “tipster is a poo poo head”? I guess it’s easier than trying to attack the substance of a point well made.
    bobTrouser, that is a truly interesting post.

  17. Posted by anonn

    Not one number Tipster spewed, other than the buy figure, was worthwhile, reasoned, accurate, coming from a place of knowledge, understanding, usefulness, or value. The fact that you call his point well made and of substance is a joke. (One hundred five thousand dollar staging bill, anyone?) But then again, you’re an anon(ymous) an anoynymous blog. Go ahead and find what he says useful. What does it matter?

  18. Posted by tipster

    Transfer taxes alone are north of $45,000. If one year of high end staging was $5,000 and the realtor commission was a nickel, the seller still lost money, unless sleepiguy’s initial estimate (more than two million) was incorrect.
    I realize there is some backtracking by sleepiguy going on, but as between one number posited by sleepiguy right after the showing and another number a year later, I think I’d believe the initial estimate. And I took the extreme low side of that.
    as for “YOU ARE THE EDITOR, TIPSTER”
    Yes. You’ve outed me. I’m also anonn, Sparky, sleepiguy, eddy, Paul, diemos, trip and I was even satchel/LMRiM, but all that research and encyclopedic posts were killing me and so I gave up on that – what a relief.
    I’m sorry everyone for posting as everyone, but I needed to make the site lively to keep you all coming back every day, and it seemed like a good idea. Otherwise, we’d just get two or three posts per day from a couple of bored Realtors like the front steps. I’m truly sorry – practically all of the personalities are completely a figment of my imagination. It was like writing a script for a sitcom. I’m tired of keeping track of what everyone should say anyways, so I just give up.

  19. Posted by sfrenegade

    Assuming 20% down, that’d be a loan of $1.78M. 30 year fixed at 6.5% is $11250/month. That’s not an unreasonable rate for a jumbo in 2nd half 2005 and is probably more likely to undershoot the rate (could have been close to 7%). So if tipster was only calculating the last two years of holding, I’d get more like $270K for the hold.

  20. Posted by kthnxybe

    http://lolcat.com/pics/threadlovercat.jpg
    I came to oggle pretty houses and maybe learn something about the local real estate market, I stayed for the hilarity.

  21. Posted by marko1332

    I hope it makes to syndication Tipster; keep posing, everyone is entitled to their opinion. Given the nature of the individuals attempting to suppress your opinion, they’re aligned with the “profession”, and have reason to worry. You get laid with one, and screwed by the other, guess which is in the RE business?

  22. Posted by tipster

    Pssst. SFRenegade: 2.mil construction loan.

  23. Posted by anonn

    Man. You are one willfully ignorant son of a disinformation specialist. The property is 4500 square feet. Do you know what can be done with 2M in construction money? Obviously you don’t. But a whole lot more than this.

  24. Posted by Wifey

    I am back. Having multiple personalities is the same as having multiple offers during the great 2005 overbid charade.
    RE buyers agent: “they really like you and you were on of three top bidders. They also like the other folks two top offer. Lets get the three of you to rebid even higher to get a final higher price. Are you not glad I can talk the Buyers RE agent into allowing you this chance”!

  25. Posted by sleepiguy

    ^ I’m glad I didn’t totally pull that figure out of my a$$. My memory is pretty short term these days and I’m too lazy to go back to my original posts.
    Anyway, another thread that’s become a little odd. I like tipster’s posts – at least he has a sense of humor about it all.

  26. Posted by tipster

    Funny, whemn SG said 2mil while it was for sale, nary a peep from the realtor crowd. Yes indeed, buyers, this would cost you 2mil to do yourself, so BID HIGHER!!
    Fast forward to the sale, where a 2mil cost means the seller loses money, and they all run scurrying for cover, like cockroaches when the light shines on them. Did I say 2? I meant 1.5. Do you know what 2mil buys? Etc.
    Hillarious!

  27. Posted by steve

    Funny, whemn SG said 2mil while it was for sale, nary a peep from the realtor crowd
    Funny, I read Alex from theFrontSteps’ comment as a realtor saying either no way in hell they spent $2M, no way they’ll get it back or both.
    But yes, I agree that we see exaggerated remodelling numbers posted here all the time. And, some of the comments I appreciate most are from folks in the trade when they discuss real costs.

  28. Posted by anonn

    What’s “funny” is the way. Tipster thinks he can always fabricate a way to keep talking. So now it’s another realtor spin/ conspiracy. Moments ago, what was it, 500 a foot for this build, Tippycanoe? Why? What do you know that makes you want to talk in that manner? Your rationale for taking sleepyguy’s off the cuff, and later on self-corrected comment was what, again? I call you out every time I see your nonsense. That’s pretty often. If I saw a 2M estimate before I would have said something. I often do just that, you know it, and you’re not doing yourself any favors by grasping at straws yet again.

  29. Posted by eddy

    The confusion on remodel costs often comes from the difference between a contractor build who has access to low cost / low margin labor and wholesale / contractor pricing on many materials versus someone hiring a contractor to fix a home with margins. Time and speed are also a big factor. But most of the confusion comes from people talking out their arse; I suspect we’re all guilty of that from time to time.

  30. Posted by anon

    Anonn: I call you out every time I see your nonsense.
    Exactly. That is ALL anonn does, mock others, and he certainly does not limit it to “nonsense.” He does nothing but respond to others’ posts by proclaiming “You’re wrong, just because I say so.” His posts above are prime examples. Well, he also mocks those who post by the sock “anon” rather than the far more descriptive “anonn.” That dude needs to grow up, get out of the sandbox, and get a job other than selling his dad’s investments once in a while.
    For the record, tipster’s estimated holding costs are way, way too low. You have to factor in the holding costs for both the 2005 purchase and the construction. It would be closer to $800,000 – $1 million depending on when they started construction.

  31. Posted by sfrenegade

    Aren’t all these loans a matter of public record, since presumably they were recorded? I see it as reasonable to assume a 30-year fixed with 20% down without evidence to the contrary, but in some cases, don’t we have evidence?
    In any case, lots of people on the original thread predicted a price above $6M, and it doesn’t appear to be sleepiguy that suggested a remodel price of $2M:
    @ekeby this is no $1M renovation. I heard it cost much closer to $2M. Still very pricey, I think the developer is playing games, hoping for someone to come with a low $6M offer that he’d gladly take.
    Posted by: someone at November 3, 2008 10:30 PM
    I defer to sparky-b or another contractor on costs, but it doesn’t sound like anyone was a winner here, except for Alex who predicted between $4.5M and 5M and nailed it.

  32. Posted by anonn

    is ALL anonn does, mock others, and he certainly does not limit it to “nonsense.” He does nothing but respond to others’ posts by proclaiming “You’re wrong, just because I say so.” His posts above are prime examples. Well, he also mocks those who post by the sock “anon” rather than the far more descriptive “anonn.” That dude needs to grow up, get out of the sandbox, and get a job other than selling his dad’s investments once in a while
    Ha. I mock Tipster occasionally because he’s a willfull liar. But mo axe to grind on your part. No sir. If a crumb like you knew half the things I’ve accomplished in this shifting market, you’d flip. You’re angry because you obviously sided with an idiot.

  33. Posted by tipster

    “Also, this definitely cost more than 1 million to do. Even though I don’t think they performed any substructure work, I wouldn’t be surprised if the total was well over two million – bare minimum $500 a foot.
    Posted by: Sleepiguy at November 3, 2008 9:57 AM”
    Just for the heck of it, lets assume that in 2005, the developer took a 2.225 I/O loan at 10% down, about 2M at just under 6%, now add 1% for property tax. Hello, you remember property tax, don’t you? So he’s paying $140K each year for 4 years. Opportunity cost on two hundred thousand dollars 0 in 2005? Sure why not. That’s $560K for the hold.
    But wait, we have a construction loan. 2 years at 8%, plus the property tax, but everyone lies so we’ll add only 0.5% to compensate. So lets say we’re at 1.6 mil on the build costs. Everyone claims higher, so it’s not lower than that. 8.5% x 1.6 x 2years = 272K. So now we’ve got $832K for the hold.
    So purchase at 2.225 + 832 for the hold +1.6mil for the rebuild, we’re at 4.54. Transfer tax is another 0.046.
    Then, what did they pay the realtor. I have to figure the buyer’s realtor took 2.5% because there was no relationship with this guy, so say the seller’s realtor took 1% cuz he does lots of business. That’s 3.5% of 4.9Mil, or 172,500. High end 4500 square foot stage for a year? $50K? Total 4.925. The buyer paid 4.9. If the developer did everything right, and all costs were impossibly cheap, he loses money on a 2005 buy and two years of work, even in the best case.
    It’s really only a matter of *how much* he lost.
    Anyone wants to run their own numbers, I’m all ears.

  34. Posted by alex

    Great to see my name in lights here on SS and not for being bashed. 😉
    Funny, I see this quote above from anon, “I see the regulars have jumped into the sandbox”…what’s funny is I was literally in the sandbox across the street when it all started for me.
    Glad to see it sold around where I thought. Mitch could have saved a ton of time had he listened to me and not been so overly confident about the price (I won’t even go into his arrogance regarding me, Zephyr, and who I might have as clients…all poor people apparently). This ain’t f*ckin’ rocket science!
    Rock on! I’m going surfin’

  35. Posted by anonn

    But wait, we have a construction loan. 2 years at 8%, plus the property tax, but everyone lies so we’ll add only 0.5% to compensate. So lets say we’re at 1.6 mil on the build costs. Everyone claims higher, so it’s not lower than that. 8.5% x 1.6 x 2years = 272K. So now we’ve got $832K for the hold.
    Everyone is not. They took an existing structure and created a three level new structure behind it. I’ve seen similar builds done several times for 1M and less. The developer WAS the client. Know that. Please inform the board as to how you are deriving these imaginary 500K to 1M premiums?
    You counted property tax twice? Once in the first stanza’s numbers and again in the 8% construction loan assumption numbers? Why?
    “Impossibly cheap” — where did you ever display any knowledge, or reveal any particular insight gained from experience, with regard to construction costs?
    Nice to see that you have more than halved your staging costs since I called you out on that. Fifty K for a year might be about right. I see you’ve changed all your initial trumped up mortgage costs too.
    You got transfer tax wrong. It would have been 36,750. Not a game changer, unlike your exaggerated build cost. But for as much as you belabor this all the time, you should go find a San FRancisco transfer tax calculator. This is the fourth time I’ve needed to correct your math on this subject.
    This isn’t mockery. This is open questioning. OK, “anon” ? The guy simply gets it wrong all the time. It is what it is.

  36. Posted by huh?

    I think tipster assessed property tax on 2 levels:
    1 – The property tax on the original purchase
    2 – The property tax increase caused by the addition. The property tax would get reassessed for such an extended redo, right? If the works cost 1.6 and the owner declared only 1/2, then his 0.5% is not too far off.
    His assessment of property taxes are off, though. It’s over 1%. He’s off by 10%+.

  37. Posted by anonn

    2 – The property tax increase caused by the addition. The property tax would get reassessed for such an extended redo, right? If the works cost 1.6 and the owner declared only 1/2, then his 0.5% is not too far off.
    Again with the 1.6 build when the job was spec, and the existing structure was kept and added onto. Please, someone explain why they are assuming that’s anywhere near valid. I’ll not debate Tipster taking Sleepiguy’s guess, which Sleepi himself recanted, and running with it.
    Tell you what, I’m meeting with two developers today and tomorrow. I’ll pick their brains about what they estimate they’d be spending right now on projects I’m attempting to sell them. If they say over 250 a foot for their own high end projects, I’ll be shocked.
    As far as supplemental tax for the post Certificate of Occupancy, yeah, the city will come calling for that year of additional value. That’s the term, OK? “supplemental tax.” Tipster’s post was confusing.

  38. Posted by tipster

    “If they say over 250 a foot for their own high end projects, I’ll be shocked.”
    Big difference between some North Bernal flip and the top of Pacific Ave. Sleepiguy said at least $500 psft.
    The existing structure *was* added onto: it was 1500 square feet and they added 3000 square feet.
    Sleepiguy recanted, but did so a year later and only after the place sold for a lower number. No one contradicted the initial number. At the time of the viewing is certainly going to be more accurate: I shaved 20% off the more accurate guesstimate to get 1.6.
    Correct on the transfer tax: I was off by $0.00925M. Hardly beyond the margin of error and it didn’t change the analysis.
    The staging was always about $50K, you were leaving out the transfer taxes.
    And say what you will about me: I don’t intentionally lie. I use the information I have available at the time, and it might be wrong, particularly if I rely on others assessments. But I state all of my assumptions so they can be corrected. Sleepiguy sees it, says 2Mil minimum, no one contradicts, what number was I supposed to use? That was an intentional lie?
    In my initial post, I hadn’t realized it was a seasoned developer who got the price SO wrong, I assumed it was a homeowner who fixed up big time and sold. That was why I didn’t initially assign the first two years of hold expenses. So that lowered the hold expenses, but increased the realtor expenses. Yes, I’ve adjusted them, but they only got worse.
    You on the other hand, provide no information other than “you’re wrong”. Geez, at the very least explain why without just a conclusory “your remodel costs are too high – I can add 3000 square feet and remodel 1500 in a high end remodel for a nickel (ok I’m exaggerating, but you get the idea).
    If you actually explain yourself, some of us might actually get something out of your posts then and we might actually assign you some credibility as opposed to the very little you get from “you’re wrong”.

  39. Posted by anon

    Let’s make sure we talk apples to apples. Construction costs are down considerably today from when this work was done. Materials costs are a lot lower and so are labor costs given all the underemployed workers.

  40. Posted by sleepiguy

    I never meant for my revised number to cause so much controversy. I just couldn’t remember how I came up with it. $500 a foot is totally justifiable for a high-end construction in 2007. A number tipster backed up with the 2 million construction loan. That’s a completely logical price for a project that took 2+ year, in addition to architects fees, permitting fees, staging, et. al.

  41. Posted by huh?

    Good thing the LHC in Switzerland is not in full speed yet, or else the regulars here would have gone on splitting hair down to the subparticulate level.

  42. Posted by The Milkshake of Despair

    If the seller was an experienced developer then yes, their build costs were probably lower compared to a “retail” owner who had to hire a GC to manage the project.
    But then you have to counterbalance that by accounting for the time that the developer/seller put into the project. It isn’t fair to assume that his/her time is free.
    How much would you have to pay a developer/GC to manage a 2 year project ? That needs to get added into the calculations if you’re going to also discount the build costs. You don’t have to use the full “retail” rates, but a reasonable valuation of your time. I typically pencil in $20/hr for my own time even though both myself and whatever contractor that I would hire could earn much more. That estimate is super conservative.
    As for the reassessment after the 3000 sq.ft. were added : Isn’t reassessment triggered after the final inspection and the permits are closed out ? If so, a reasonable strategy would be to delay closing out the permits until the sales contract was firm. That way you enjoy the tax rate of the original 1500 sq.ft. home right up until it sells. There are many ways to delay permit closure even if the project is 99.99% done.

  43. Posted by anonn

    A client just said 300 a foot for his own builds — some of which would be drooled over here on Socketsite. I pressed him, and conceded 250 to 280 would be feasible. I’ve personally been involved with numerous big builds. And two right now. But fine. Majority rules. 500 a foot it is. Yay internet! You have killed information in the guise of providing information once again, oh wily master.

  44. Posted by tipster

    ^
    My birthdate

  45. Posted by SF Dude

    In other news, the next house to the west is occupied by a couple of teenage a-hole’s. They were out there about 6 months ago throwing waterballons on passing cars and kids in the Julius Kahn playground . Luckily the cops showed up and were in the house taking names.

  46. Posted by anonn

    Tipster, it’s funny how I know that you know I know what I’m talking about. Yet you’d rather grab some random info off the internet and run with it. Because it’s convenient, today, for your negative spin.
    And anon, if you don’t see the difference between having the same pseudonym as six others and having one that’s always answered to by one person, then I can’t help you. Nobody can, for that matter.

  47. Posted by tipster

    Here’s what I know. You can spend 280, 300, 500 or more psf. I know that sleepiguy saw it and decided it was a 500+ job. I know that sleepiguy has a lot of experience and credibility. I know that at least a dozen realtors who saw it read sleepiguy’s post and didn’t say word one about any inaccuracy of the estimate.
    I also know that some realtors will downplay problems with properties so that buyers will pay more.
    That’s all I know. Of course it was a guess and the developer might have spent 300, but based on what I know, 2M seems like a conservative guestimate.

  48. Posted by anonn

    I know that sleepiguy and eddy have a good grasp of home values in the areas 7. I have not seen a whole lot of people on this website talk about construction costs with what I would consider accuracy. Not since paco got bored and left anyway. Whether or not any realtors objected to the costs last time around isn’t particularly relevant. What numbers are there to crunch until it’s sold? Regardless, I’ve objected to numerous outsized estimates in the past. Guess I missed that one.

  49. Posted by steve

    I know that at least a dozen realtors who saw it read sleepiguy’s post and didn’t say word one about any inaccuracy of the estimate.
    so, I went back and read the original post, expecting to find it fill with astroturfing cheerleaders. instead, there are comments like these:
    “$2.25 M purchase plus, what, $1 M for renovation?” – ekyby
    “I was really excited to see this …but when i saw it on Broker’s Tour I was fairly disappointed. The bedrooms were all so tiny and I thought the layout was fairly unusual.” – agentsf
    “a month ago it sells with a 6 in front of it…but not today” – ok
    “Leave it to Menaged’s group for another ripoff project” – shopgirl
    “Anyone want to bet that this place will sell for a max of 5.5mil (if they’re lucky)?” – muffinman
    ironically, one of the more optomistic commenters regarding it reaching its wishing price is tipster:
    “Places in this location with that much space in that good of a condition are pretty rare (half of it being new construction, and the size of that great room is pretty impressive). If someone needs it, they could very well pay it, but it might take awhile to find that person” – tipster
    anyway, the bottom line is $1100/sq ft in this market for a property of that size and without view is a a strong sale.

  50. Posted by sleepiguy

    I stand by my earlier comment that if this had been joe schmo buying this place and redoing it for the high-end market, it would’ve been a $2 million budget and close to $500 per foot back in 2007. Because this was a professional developer, I have to admit my initial estimate was a bit high. Unfortunately, I never saw the property on the market or I might have revised my estimate earlier.
    In any case, I went over the images with a top SF architect and designer to get a better idea of cost of materials, etc. With a bit of disagreement, we came up with about $400 per foot, obviously less than my original estimate. The point is the developers didn’t make any money on this job. At best it was a wash. At worst…?
    The one place I’ll disagree with anonn is that people in Pac Heights/Presidio Heights spend much more on their houses than you might think. The final budgets for some truly high-end homes are pretty staggering.

  51. Posted by eddy

    I agree with sleepiguy on his last point. I’ve seen several homes with finishes that could never be recouped only to satisfy the current owner.

  52. Posted by anonn

    But this one was spec. (sigh)

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