According to the July 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 3.3% from June ’09 to July ’09, down 17.9% year-over-year and down 41.0% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 1.7% from June to July but remain down 31.1% from a peak in June 2006 (down 12.7% year-over-year).
These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.
On a month-over-month basis San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across all three price tiers for the second time since May 2006.
The bottom third (under $287,849 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.9% from June to July (down 26.4% YOY); the middle third gained 1.3% from June to July (down 14.3% YOY); and the top third (over $533,113 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.8% from June to July (down 14.5% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain at April 2000 levels having fallen 61% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around April 2002 levels having fallen 39% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA gained 2.1% from June ’09 to July ’09, down 17.7% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.5% from an October 2005 high.
The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Broad Improvement in Home Prices According to S&P/Case-Shiller Index [S&P]
∙ June S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Up MOM Across All Tiers [SocketSite]
∙ March S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Slide Slows But Continues Fall [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August [SocketSite]