425 1st Street (ORH) #2403
As a plugged-in reader writes:

I’m shocked this morning to discover that not only is [#2403 at One Rincon Hill] on the MLS – but the agent is offering an open house on the 16th! Have I gone crazy, or is there something wrong about this picture? Agents have been threatened with lawsuits for simply trying to find someone on craigslist to take over their contract. ORH claims they’re prohibited from doing that because they don’t yet actually own the unit they’re attempting to sell. That’s why so many of the CL ads are posted without names attached.

Considering it’s below the 28th floor (and they’re holding an open house) it’s probably safe to assume that the seller of #2403 is one of those who have already closed escrow, so no crazy (at least not on your side).
And for those who have been itching to get inside and see what it’s all about (including those who are in contract on the upper floors), here’s your (first) chance.
∙ Listing: 425 1st Street #2403 (2/2) 1,278 sqft – $1,299,000 [MLS]
Infinity And One Rincon Hill: Closings By The Numbers To Date (2/29) [SocketSite]

81 thoughts on “The First “Official” Resale (And Open House) At One Rincon Hill?”
  1. maybe 800 a sq foot…nice but over priced. Especially if prices continue to go down over the next cpl years.

  2. If the developer is as crafty as I think they are, they’ll offer the buyer all sorts of extras to goose the sale price.
    Why do this when it isn’t theirs? To mask the true sale price, of course. They’ll make it back in droves on the other units they are going to have to resell.
    Either that or they’ll just buy it themselves at an inflated price and then sell it at a loss in a year.
    Those guys are slick.

  3. Not sure how slick these people are. Seems to me like the wheels are coming off the bus (the CL ads for sales and rentals, the delay of the second tower, the bad PR about the walkthroughs, etc).
    In any case, it will be very interesting to see what this sells for, as it will set the benchmark for the building. It seems overpriced by at least 200K. Any idea what it was purchased for?

  4. Wasn’t there a no flip clause in the 1RH contract ? If so wouldn’t this sale violate that clause ?

  5. This is one place I would love to have seen staged. I wonder if it wasn’t because they were testing the waters and figuring they might have to withdraw it. But putting in some furniture would have opened the possibility of how the box-like flavor of the place could be made into a home … or a second home … and would surely help sell it.

  6. I don’t know too much specifically about the “no-flip” clause in the 1RH contract (if someone wants to post the language, I’d be happy to offer some thoughts), but the law looks very disfavorably on these sorts of restrictions. Basically, it is a holdover from the extreme aversion in the common law to restrictions on the alienability of property (especially real property).
    To get around this general aversion, sales contracts usually contain all sorts of exceptions designed to make the restrictions against alienability seem reasonable, and therefore enforceable. I’ll bet $100 (like james) that the 1RH contract contains an exception for “relocations”. My guess is that this flip is a “phony” relocation (I mean – wouldn’t the owner have known about the “relocation” a few months ago and not closed??), but the practical effect of exceptions like that would be to shift the burden to the developer to “prove” that the purported relocation is phony. Maybe I’m wrong, someone with a contract ( or a real lawyer) could chime in here….

  7. Ding, ding, ding! Give the man a prize! Indeed the marketing notes say “Owner’s relocation has forced the sale.”

  8. Maybe it was James Cayne’s?
    I’d love to see better photos of everything, than the typical we’ve already seen.

  9. Ah, I see. There’s not an ironclad “no flip” clause, just flip suppression language with enough loopholes to allow determined flippers to play. I agree with Satchel that relocation is likely a bogus excuse.
    Oceangoer : Why would the seller stage this property ? It is brand new and there are no significant flaws to cover up 🙂

  10. Anyone know the original sales price of this unit?
    Even though I’m an Infinity buyer, I’d like to see this unit sell at it’s asking price since it’ll be good for the market overall.
    But having said that, there’s been so much bad news about One Rincon lately that the seller may be smart to try to get out before the it gets worse up ‘on the hill’.

  11. I believe this unit is the same design they have “staged” in the One Rincon sales office next door, so I guess I’ll go over there and check it out before I check out the final product =)

  12. @ milkshake – no offense, but I for one much prefer to see a property staged than vacant. And I’m smart enough to figure out if I need to look under throw rugs, area rugs, potted plants, behind furniture or under beds to see if there are flaws, leaks, or hidden defects. If a buyer is not smart enough to do this then they should not be buying in the first place. For you to imply that agents have properties staged for the pure fact of covering up problems, flaws, imperfections, or issues that would otherwise be disclosed in the disclosure documents is pretty accusatory. We have always had thorough inspections done prior to any properties we have purchased as any buyer in their right mind would do. Beyond that, the furniture and staging is removed well before the final inspection or walk-through leaving everything to be seen with the naked eye and negotiated prior to closing. Any issues that might have been hidden due to furniture or staging are pretty obvious at this point, if they have been overlooked prior.

  13. $1016/sq. ft. and $755/mo. for HOA dues. No thanks. Where’s our post about the February Dataquick sales for Bay Area that came out yesterday morning?
    [Editor’s Note: We tend to be sticklers for accuracy, and we’ll publish as soon as we get some clarification from DataQuick.]

  14. One Rincon Hill has already closed escrow on more than 70 homes in 5 weeks and moved in 40+ on a tower that is still under construction. It couldn’t close or move in any more at a faster rate.
    The Infinity’s first tower is entirely done and it has closed less than half of that and moved in, what, a dozen? Infinity buyer: heal thyself.

  15. For fun my wife and I looked at a unit there for rent also on the 24th. The agent asked us if we liked the view, and said that’s what we’d be renting, he has a few for sale in the building and actually told us he wouldn’t recommend we rent or buy in there… the finishes felt icky, it was a pretty good sized unit (facing west on the curved side) but I have to say I wouldn’t move there even if I were a purchaser… however that being said it wasn’t as poorly finished as the watermark unit we looked at… wow I wouldn’t be PAID to live in there.

  16. “But having said that, there’s been so much bad news about One Rincon lately that the seller may be smart to try to get out before the it gets worse up ‘on the hill’.”
    LOL – this is almost the epitome of the “prices may be falling in the US/California/Bay Area/SF/SF Neighborhood, but the price of my unit hasn’t fallen” argument. (Presumably the epitome would be to argue that all the units in your building except yours are falling.)
    Unless you’re a flipper you don’t “lose” any money when prices decline…it’s just a psychological loss of knowing you could have gotten it for less if you had waited. I bought an iPhone in June and then they cut the price 3 months later. I didn’t “lose” any money when Apple did that (in fact, I gained $100 because Apple give out $100 store credits to early adopters as an “apology”).

  17. I can trade the poor finishes with those incredible VIEWS! Can’t get those anywhere else in the city, not the marina, heffer hollow, pac heights, etc. At least you can change the finishes..

  18. “Agents have been threatened with lawsuits for simply trying to find someone on craigslist to take over their contract. ORH claims they’re prohibited from doing that because they don’t yet actually own the unit they’re attempting to sell. That’s why so many of the CL ads are posted without names attached.”
    Looks like there may be some credibility in that. 2 days ago, there were 18 Craigslist ads from desperate One Rincon contract holder looking to bail. Today I only see 7. So unless there were a mad rush to buy those contracts, someone or something is taking down these ads.
    Rentals are another story. I still see 35+ units for rent a ORH. Starting to look like a bloodbath as investors try to undermine each other…

  19. Still waiting for my $3k/mo, 2/2 with 2 parking rental in ORH.
    It’ll happen…
    Heck, I have an even better offer: $2800/mo for the 2/2 and I’ll sign a 2-year lease!

  20. Jimmy (Bitter Renter)-
    In the city, for rent controlled units, I think the landlords have great incentive to hold out for a higher rent even if the unit is vacant for a while. Because once someone is in, you can’t raise rents and you can’t kick them out. For these non-rent control units, the incentive might be to get someone in with a 6 month lease at lower rent and hope to raise the rents later. In other words, maybe demand higher rent for longer leases. Would be interested to know what others think.
    “$3k/mo, 2/2 with 2 parking rental in ORH” target doesn’t sound too unreasonable to me. How much would you be willing to pay to own this unit?

  21. To buy? I dunno. HOAs of $775 leaves $2225 left over to service the mortgage, principal interest and taxes. I’m guessing around $300k.
    Everyone who thinks that’ll happen anytime soon, raise your hands!!

  22. Satchel,
    You seem fairly educated on the law for a nonlawyer. Not sure I’m buying it. You correctly point out the doctrine regarding restraints on alienation and a couple days ago you pointed out a Constitutional law issue that many law students fail to grasp. The most convincing piece of evidence is the disclaimer you included with your “Constitutional” post. Trying to avoid a perceived attorney-client relationship? No need if you aren’t an attorney I would think.
    If I see you on here properly explaining the rule against perpetuities, I’ve got you dead to rights.
    If I remember correctly, contractual restraints on alienation are unenforceable. This is especially true where the contract is one of adhesion. I doubt ORH allows buyers to negotiate this term of the contract. I, therefore, doubt ORH can prevent a resale no matter what the contract says. This is in contrast to a requirement that unit be owner-occupied (no rentals) as that is not a restraint on alienation.

  23. Publius,
    No hidden agenda here! I’m a Yale Law School graduate but I do not practice law (never really did, to tell the truth). I was a hedge fund trader/pm and now I am semi-retired. (I’ve posted all that in the past, so please I’m not looking to get any more conversation started on me!!) When I refer to a “real” lawyer, I always mean some lawyer who is actually practicing and has real experience in these areas.
    What you say about adhesion contracts and the inability of buyers to negotiate seems spot-on.
    I’ll leave the rule against perpetuities discussions to you!

  24. Satchel,
    Sorry, I missed the previous explanation of your background. And I was thrown off by the references to not being a real lawyer.
    Thanks for posting here by the way. The main reason I visit this site is to read what you, ex-SF’er, and a few select others have to say.

  25. Ah,
    Delayed answer. He mumbled something around $4800 (I honestly think he was embarassed to be there). It’s listed at $4600 on his listing and also $3995.
    Also, in response to sf’s comment about good views, I wasn’t THAT blown away by the view… It was a very odd perspecitve over the 101 and looked like a view down a very wide boulevard (essentially). When I went to the Paramount to see what they had, I was on a 38th floor unit (a bit more expensive mind you) that had unbelievable views…
    The realtor had explained that this unit was bought by an “investor” for 999k and that is why it was renting.
    It will rent that I have no doubt about, a company needs a corporate rental, sight unseen, it looks pretty in pictures.

  26. Take with a grain of salt – as partly mentioned, restraints on alienation of real property are viewed very unfavorably by courts, barring some legitimate justifications for the restraint that outweigh the damage or harm caused to the party prohibited from selling. In other words, good luck to ORH in trying to enforce the clause. Separately, good luck to the seller trying to sell for that price. If I were looking to buy, I’d wait a few more months and let the market works its magic. IMO, there will likely be cheaper options in comparable units.

  27. Let the games begin! After 21 months of online ranting about ORH… we’re finally going to GET IN & kick the tires for ourselves! Congrats to the pioneer homeowners who’ve moved in. Kudos the Realtors who have the first resale… there will be dozens and dozens more. The San Francisco real estate landscape has officially changed forever! See you on Sunday!

  28. I wonder how much “occupancy fraud” is occuring either with or without the knowledge and assistance of the “approved lenders” at ORH and Infinity. Non-owner occupied properties require substantially higher down payments as well as an extra 1.5 points in fees.
    The ads on CL are quite telling. I can’t wait to start matching the rental addresses to the deeds of trust that don’t contain an occupancy rider.

  29. movingback – I was being snarky on that staging comment above, hence the emoticon smiley face. Of course the main purpose of staging is to make the property more attractive. It might also help people imagine how to live in the space (though see my warning on deceptive staging tricks here : https://socketsite.com/archives/2008/03/forget_the_rock_star_lifestyle_anybody_want_to_live_lik.html#c380312)
    But you must agree that often staging is used to hide flaws in the property. I’ve seen obvious cases of this so many times that touring a staged property makes me be extra cautious. Touring an empty unflipped property on the other hand gives me a much more honest feel that no-one is trying to pull wool over my head. And I can visualize a wall moving remodel much easier without the furniture in the way.
    I hope you’re not serious about the buyer having a chance to see any defects during the final walkthrough and after the staging has been removed. To me that point is way waaaaay to late to see a fundamental problem such as the fact that the staging did not present an honest representation of how the property can be lived in. At the final walkthrough everyone involved in the transaction (brokers, buyers, sellers) has put a lot of time, money, and effort into the transaction. This is too late in the purchase cycle to learn that the lifestyle that the stager allowed you to visualize is in fact possible.
    I have little qualms with honest staging. However the dishonest staging tricks that are sometimes employed offend me. I’m sure you know what I am talking about.

  30. We now have a new San Francisco social order- the high risers, and the squatters (those that live in squat homes on the ground).

  31. At least they do not call this building or unit a “luxury” property in the listing. I am still waiting for a true new luxury tower, and by luxury I don’t mean expensive, but a building more like what went up in this city in the 20’s through the 40’s, or what you see going up now in Chicago. Other than the views, what really makes these units any different than some ordinary 350,000 condo in an Irvine Tower? Imagine sitting in this unit without the view and you realize how ordinary it is. Where are the full floor flats that I see in newer towers in Chicago and NYC? Where are the grand motor courts, large well designed hallways, or unique floor plans that change with every floor? I would rather not live in a low ceiling shoe box on a high floor, and instead be on a lower floor in a much larger unit with more unique design for the same money. Why has no builder tried to give us something other than more of the same?

  32. anoncomplainer- I’m sure you are aware of Turnberry’s luxury tower scheduled to be constructed right across the street from 1RH this summer. 1RH may not be THE luxury tower, but it is definitely in a (up n coming) luxury neighborhood.

  33. I am aware of the Turnberry, and I think it MIGHT be more in line with what buyers in other cities expect. The Turnberry may be a project that could use the word “Luxury” without insulting buyers with standard interiors found currently throughout the city in every other new project.
    I recently found in my mailbox a brochure for the new Richard Meier designed condos in Beverly Hills with lobby and interiors by Candy and Candy. Now THAT is luxury. (and for about what we pay for an upper floor 2bd in 1RH). The floorplans are quite interesting with ceiling heights that allow for cove lighting details, and Master Bathrooms larger than a 1RH Living Room.
    But when are we going to get a building like where a client of mine bought in Chicago, http://www.50eastchestnut.com , why does Chicago get so many full floor condo floorplans when their density downtown is as high as our city? This buidling is 2 blocks from Barneys, Prada, The Four Seasons Hotel, etc. and these large full floor units were no more expensive than upper floor units in a certain building across from the Transbay bus terminal. I still remain very unsatisfied by a lot of new developements in San Francisco, that although being very expensive, are still very pedestrian, and hardly luxurious.

  34. anoncomplainer-
    The obious difference between San Francisco and Chicago is the cost of land values and the ridiculously long planning process here which results in higher holdings costs.

  35. I am suprised that you claim the Gold Coast of Chicago and Beverly Hills have land values less than a location like One Rincon Hill? Google Earth the Chestnut location and it is vitually surrounded by some of the tallest buildings in the world, and the Beverly Hills project is next to a golf course, can you imagine that kind of project in that location happening here? The real reason San Francisco does not get projects like these is because of the insane planning regulations and NIMBY attitudes in this city.

  36. I went to the open house. I couple things:
    The area is still a construction zone. I wonder why the developer doesn’t make more of an effort to isolate the construction area from the driveway, garage, and lobby areas. I was worried my car might hit a nail or some machinery driving up the driveway. Also, there’s exposed drywall on the exterior of the lobby. At the very least the lobby should be finished before letting owners move in. There’s a roundabout at the top of the driveway for cars to drop off people at the lobby. It’s true, the freeway is literally a few feet from the lobby. It was noisy and windy up there, but the view was nice.
    The unit itself was quite nice. You don’t really notice the freeway below you and the bay views were great. The balcony was directly below the bridge and was noisy. The interior was pretty quiet, the kitchen countertop needs to be changed. The color and pattern reminded me of vomit 🙂
    Otherwise a $1000/sqft for that view, someone will probably end up buying it. There were lots of people at the open house.

  37. I was at the open house yesterday. It definitely could use some staging as it needs furnishings to warm it up. The living room/dining area are a nice size and the views are nice, especially of the water. One of the bedrooms seemed quite small. The finishes are nice but a little conservative for my taste, especially the countertops. With the door open to the terrace, it was pretty noisy but I imagine with it closed it would be fine. Without furniture, it felt like a very very expensive apartment and not a home.

  38. I also went to the open house.
    It was a beautiful day and the views were amazing. And the floor-to-ceiling windows captured the views magnificently. I could probably sit on a couch and just look out the windows for days.
    The unit and location is otherwise unimpressive. The bedrooms are too small. The counters in the kitchen and bathroom were fugly. The cabinents were more attractive, but the quality didn’t seem commensurate with a $1.3M home. All of the closets have those crappy folding doors (you know, the ones that look cheap and never close the first time you try). The location is terrible, except of course for the effect on the views. Even when the construction is finished, it’s going to be several years before anyone would be inclined to walk outside this building.
    Considering the going price for a small 2/2 without a view in South Beach/SoMa, a buyer would be paying approx. $500M for the view (at this listing price). Perhaps that’s the going rate, but with the addition of the two Infinity towers, the Millenium, and the two ORH towers, there are going to be a lot of units with spectacular views.

  39. I went to the open house as well. I was unimpressed. The bedrooms were tiny, the bathrooms were ugly, and I pity anyone that would pay 1.3M to stare at twin peaks all day. The nice things were the floors and the kitchen cabinets… but again, for 1.3M I’d want more than just that.
    I asked the agent about any flipping clauses – this seemed to make him uncomfortable and he said they were working through it, and that he ‘thought’ given the circumstances of the seller, they would be able to sell. Wouldn’t you have that figured out before putting the thing on the market???
    Also, I currently live in the Rincon Hill neighboorhood because I like walking to work everyday. I don’t think I’d live at 1RH purely because walking up and down that hill would be a huge pain. They need to install an escalator. 🙂

  40. anoncomplainer- I’m surprised you find that Beverly Hills project you mentioned so appealing. It looks like the old Trinity Plaza in SF on Market and 8th st from the outside. But I really do admire their traffic free solution and LA’s LONG LOST attempt to be ‘green.’
    The Chicago tower looks a lot like 1RH, but more generic. In fact I have spoken to quite a few Chicago residents and Chicago architecture fans elsewhere in person and on the internets who love 1RH (it was designed by SCB after all), so if I’m to go by public feedback, I think I’ll adhere to the educated and experienced Chicago Joe Public’s opinion of architecture over the SF Joanne Q. Nimby opinion that is really just coming out of flat air.

  41. Hello;
    If I’m not mistaken the DRE contracts at ORH are written such a way that the only way you can flip the property in under two years is if you add the buyer on title and reatain a 1% interst in the unit. I can’t wait to see how a judge rules on that.
    How could anyone be surprised by the staging, when you consider how plain and ugly the building is. If I were the developer, I would have fired the marketing dept. a long time ago.

  42. The lobby was noisy, dusty, and windy. It had a great view of the traffic heading to the onramp though. I think I counted 40 cars within a few minutes (and this was a lazy Sunday). I can’t imagine how bad it will be during rush hours.
    Did anyone notice the gaping hole on the wall of all the bedrooms? There is a 3 inch vertical, floor to ceiling gap in the wall exposing the interiors of the building. And coming from this gap was a constant draft. I wondered where this air came from and is it safe? The agent had no idea but said all units had it.
    I can’t imagine sleeping in there with a constant cold draft. It was weird, I’ve never seen something like that before. Anyone know?

  43. Will one of you ORH-haters explain to me why you wasted your Sunday afternoon visiting a building you all so detest?
    Get over it, the building is not going away. If you don’t like the design, location, countertops, etc, please do not purchase or rent one of the units. It’s that simple.

  44. Because I tell everybody how sophisticated and cultured I am, I am full of it, instead of spending a weekend at a museum or doing something productive, I spend time making myself miserable doing silly things like visiting empty rooms. Makes me feel warm and fuzzy!

  45. “…a buyer would be paying approx. $500M for the view (at this listing price). Perhaps that’s the going rate…”
    Views certainly command a premium though nowhere near a half million. I agree with your comment that there will be a lot of competition in the view department shortly.

  46. Will one of you ORH-haters explain to me why you wasted your Sunday afternoon visiting a building you all so detest?
    For the same reason people rubberneck for accidents on the freeway, to witness the carnage and think “thank god it’s not me!”

  47. Wow, money has turned this city into a very unhappy place. I’ll trade all the beautiful towers if the bitter riches leave this city to the sane ones.

  48. The rich and homeless have made this a very unhappy place, I should emphasize. I do equate decline in quality of life by having to live around those on the extreme financial spectrums- the extreme poor (homeless) and extreme rich. Both of these detract from quality of life in this city.

  49. My impressions:
    + Views were better than I expected
    + Much quieter than I expected
    +/- Kitchen: nice appliances, granite is horrible, cabinets okay
    – Bathrooms: okay but expected much more for the price
    – Bedrooms: carpeted boxes with some good views
    – Surprised at how much the building still feels like a construction zone
    Forgot to ask – are they discounting HOAs until all the common areas are finished? $775 for a work in progress?
    “Will one of you ORH-haters explain to me why you wasted your Sunday afternoon visiting a building you all so detest?”
    I’m not a hater but isn’t the whole point of visiting the building to know whether or not you like it?

  50. Did anyone ask to open a window to see what the noise would be like if you wanted to get fresh air? I always like to have a window cracked for fresh air and the noise has always been one of my concerns.

  51. This is San Francisco, it’s not up to you to like the building or not, you are just supposed to buy or get out of the way so that the guy/gal behind you will buy it. From one of the posts above, it was asked whether they can even sell the unit based on the contract language, the response was something like we’re working on that. Come on, this is just crazy, can’t even confirm if the unit can be sold, but are asking $1.3, and I’m sure you have to put a deposit if you make an offer. What happens if the unit can’t be sold or has some additional clauses? This is no way to buy a house or high-rise or any property IMO.

  52. condoshopper, the patio door was open, and it was relatively loud. However, the bedrooms (which had their windows closed) seemed to do a good job of concealing the noise.
    highriser, never said I hated the building. I hate the price of the building; and I’m disappointed by a lot of things I saw inside the building – which I couldn’t have been disappointed with beforehand because I hadn’t seen it yet. Get how that works? Personally, I think the building itself is kinda cool – but I place it behind Infinity. And I think the pricing is redunk. I don’t see how those prices will be sustained through the housing bust, the recession we’re entering, and the large # of new condo developments coming to market in the near future.
    So did I waste my time by going to this open house knowing that I don’t plan on buying until the market stabilizes? I don’t think so – after all, 1RH will be there when it happens and I’ll be more prepared by having gone to it.

  53. Buying at ORH reminds me of buying a new car. Once the novelty wears off, you’ll trade it in for a loss and wonder why you overpaid for it in the first place. The best decisions you’ll ever make have no emotion in it.

  54. Check out all of the debris laying around in the picture of the Open House sign for the listing. It looks like a Post Katrina war zone that Brownie forgot to clean up.

  55. Speaking of Post Katrina war zone, ever since they razed those buildings in Fremont St, that whole block has deteriorated. There’s garbage in the streets, newspapers blowing around, homeless dwellings, etc. And did anyone noticed the truck someone set on fire near near Harrison and Fremont yesterday evening? It was a pretty dramatic scene.
    I guess that’s what happens when developers abandon their projects and leave the neighborhood to the elements…

  56. Uh, yeah. It’s a fact, abandonded buildings are good for the neighborhood. Must be part of the same theory that the SRO’s and homeless along 6th street are part of the neighborhood “character.”

  57. Abandonded buildings and construction sites, empty, bare plots of land. They all have the same negative effect on the area – garbage, homelesses, drug use, etc..
    I’d rather they turn that Fremont St. hole in the ground into a parking lot or some other practical use than what it is now.

  58. “2 days ago, there were 18 Craigslist ads from desperate One Rincon contract holder looking to bail. Today I only see 7.”
    For the infinity P.R. team, let’s do a little math here, albeit using approximate numbers as I don’t have exact figures.
    ORH has around 360 units in the Tower. About 3% remains unsold accordinging to the Sales Office, or around 11 units. Let’s assume they are underestimating the unsold units, and let’s say it’s actually 5%, or 18 units unsold. So, I’m looking at the facts UNFAVORABLY for ORH. Apparently there are 18 Craigslist ads with people ‘bailing out’ at ORH … let’s use this number instead of the recent 7 ads. Let’s assume ALL of those units fall through and an extra 18 units have to be sold by the Sales office. Again, this would be the MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO that is assumed. That means 18, plus 18 means 36 units would be available. 36 is 10% ‘available’ units, relative to the total of 360.
    Let’s turn to the Infinity. With tower 1 and the ‘treetops’ units, I’m estimating there are around 300 units. They have 25% UNSOLD INVENTORY which means there are 75 ‘available’ units. That’s over twice what ORH has [36 units] even if one assumes the WORST CASE scenario for ORH. Even if you believe the Infinity’s recent claim that ONLY 16% inventory remains, that’s still 48 open units, or about 33% more than ORH, assuming all factors heavily against ORH.
    Accordingly, if one paid $1000-$1300 per sq ft. at the Infinity, and as the ‘temporary’ bus station and the Greyhound Bus ‘quality element’ become your new neighbors diagonally accross the street from the Infinity, who has greater need to worry? The Craigslist ads are definitely bad publicity, but the reality of the situation at the Infinity is clearly far more dire.

  59. Recent ORH buyer, you’re assuming that the only people “bailing out” of ORH are those 18 (or 7) who happened to put an ad on http://www.craigslist.com. That is not a valid assumption. The MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO is that many times this number are bailing out.

  60. Recent ORH buyer, you’re assuming that the only people “bailing out” of ORH are those 18 (or 7) who happened to put an ad on http://www.craigslist.com. That is not a valid assumption. The MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO is that many times this number are bailing out.
    You are also assuming that there will be no more walk aways as more and more people come to their closing dates.

  61. Trip,
    If you have quantifiable facts that “many times this number are bailing out”, please share these details with all of us. By the same token, I suppose there could be “many” people at the Infinity bailing out, just simply not posting on Craigslist.
    I used the numbers referenced by Missionbayres, and used the worst end of that spectrum [18, not 7]. Had I said [perhaps more realistically] that only 50% of the 18 would ‘default’ [or used 7] and used 3% instead of 5% remaining inventory at ORH, the Infinity ‘availability’ numbers would be three or four times those of ORH.

  62. Trip,
    In the aforementioned example I have also assumed that NOT A SINGLE PERSON HAS OR WILL walk away/’default’ on their Infinity contract. Even the Infinity P.R. folks will tell you that’s an assumption unrealistically in their favor.

  63. @Recent ORH Buyer:
    Use all the numbers you want. ORH looks like a project in trouble no matter how you analyze it. I think the number of ORH rentals is actually more worrisome than the number of people trying to dump the units (6 new listings on CL today).
    At least the view is nice…

  64. There’s currently 41 units for rent at ORH. A very high number no matter how you twist it. Didn’t they just start closing?
    And the Rincon sales team has been cracking down contract holders selling on CL. Its really bad PR. But even though, there’s still 10 desperate sellers placing ads.
    It doesn’t take a genius to see what’s happening up there. Look at the whole construction site. It’s a complete mess. The construction crew is making absolutely no effort to make the place look more civilize and pleasant for the residence. There’s garbage, tools, and debris everywhere. You would think they would take more pride in the look of the place. But from the looks of things, the place is falling apart.
    Combine that with the empty lot across the street, the dirt lots on Fremont st, and the 2nd tower in peril, Rincon Hill is in big trouble.

  65. Could some of the Craigslist rental ads potentially be duplicates, or listed by multiple agents?
    If so, the number of ORH rentals on Craigslist could be overstated…

  66. Oh sure, the number could be lower. I got the number of 40+ from various websites and real newspapers. Just seems like a lot of choices. My lease expires in May in S Beach so I’m actively looking. Infinity has around 13 so I’m considering them as well. Infinity rentals command $300-400 more for a 1 bedroom than ORH. And they only have a few 1 bedrooms to rent while ORH has tons available.

  67. I honestly can’t imagine why anyone would want to rent at One Rincon. The location is so bad and inconvenient and you really can’t walk anywhere without huffing and puffing back up the hill. I have a dog so where would I walk it? At the gas station?
    The views are nice, but if that’s all One Rincon has, I’d pass and rent at Infinity, Paramount, or Mission Bay. I can’t justify spending 2800 a month just for views.
    Not worth it at all.

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