Purchased for $2.595 million or roughly $1,433 per square foot in July of 2015, the three-bedroom penthouse unit #504 atop the Mission District development at 3590 20th and Valencia Street (a.k.a. the “V20” building) returned to the market priced at $2.8 million in 2016, a sale at which would have represented annual appreciation of just 6.3 percent for the 1,811-square-foot unit with balconies, city views, a private roof deck and a dedicated parking spot below.

And the luxury unit, which quietly resold for $2.239 million ($1,236 per square foot) in October of 2017, representing depreciation of 13.7 percent ($356K) on an apples-to-apples basis, has now returned to the market with a $2.295 million price tag.

An adjacent three-bedroom penthouse unit in the building (#505) resold in mid-2018 having depreciated 22.9 percent from the second quarter of 2015 on an apples-to-apples basis while a lower-level two-bedroom unit in the building resold at the end of 2018 having depreciated 18.8 percent from mid-2015 on an apples-to-apples versus “median price” basis as well.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by ST

    It is interesting how SF peaked in 2017/2018 when the rest of the country is still hot. Reminds me of 2007 when SF led the downtrend, a similar 2 years ahead of the rest of the country. Maybe history does repeat itself sometimes…

    • Posted by Ohlone Californio

      You’re saying that in 2007 SF prices led the rest of the country in downtrend?

    • Posted by HST

      Just dead wrong. SF peaked in Feb 08, long after the rest of the country had started lower. We were the last market to top; I know from personal experience as I refinanced way up from an April 2006 purchase.

      SF generally peeKs last and recovers first. This cycle is a bit different as rents peaked in 2015. Real estate peaked early as the spread between renting and owning has become unsustainably wide

      • Posted by Ohlone Californio

        Exactly. And until the editor(s) of this website engage with completely false bearish takes in the same manner as bullish ones, this website cannot be taken seriously.

      • Posted by TSH

        One data point is just an anecdote, not proof of anything. And a refi is not even an open market transaction. It is just a valuation based on a model. And CS shows that all tiers were into the downtrend by Feb 08.

      • Posted by SocketSite

        The Great Recession era downturn in San Francisco actually started in mid-2006, with the southern neighborhoods peaking that year, the middle-tier neighborhoods peaking in early 2007 and the top-tier areas having peaked in the first half of 2008, a downturn which lasted through early 2012.

        Of course, there were plenty of people who dismissed the leading indicators and completely misread the downturn, leading to such dismissive declarations as: “Scare tactics are dead. San Francisco never really took a price hit and it won’t, either” (circa mid-2008), as well as those who confused a typical seasonal “spike” in San Francisco sales activity with an actual rebound back in the first quarter of 2009 (which would have shaved a few years off the actual cycle).

  2. Posted by stop driving

    Those “large windows and unusual highly glassy appearance were a statement of class and privilege.”

    I’ll never forget this ridiculous argument, even though it doesn’t apply to this building.

  3. Posted by Mark F.

    Not bad, but it’s a rather long walk to both the 16th Street and 24th Street Bart Stations, if that matters to you.

    • Posted by Jack

      Come on, that is a freaking GREAT location. Arguably the best in the city, at least for a lot of demographics.

  4. Posted by Martin

    Well, the developer made out like a bandit though!

  5. Posted by Eric in SF

    Per Google Maps, it a 12 minute walk to 24th. Or, you can get there in 5 minutes if you hop on muni.

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