Having inched up over the past month, helping to pull the average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage back under 7 percent for the first time since mid-April, the expected value of the Fed’s rate cuts over the next seven months has just dropped, based on our latest analysis of the futures market.

As such, the probability that the Fed will adopt at least one quarter-point rate cut by the end of the year is down to 80 percent, with the probability of at least two rate cuts having dropped to under 50 percent and the probability of no rate cuts (for you) having ticked back over 15 percent. At the same time, pending home sales are already on the decline. We’ll keep you posted and plugged-in.

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