While it appears our projection as to when listed inventory levels would peak in San Francisco was off by a couple of hours, the net number of single-family homes and condos on the market has since ticked down 6 percent.
As such, while there are 7 percent fewer homes listed for sale in San Francisco than there were at the same time last year, there 38 percent more homes on the market than there were prior to the pandemic, over twice as many as there were in November of 2015, and 40 percent more than average over the past two decades, despite misreports of “record low inventory levels” and subsequent (mis)analyses of the market that appears to have led some seriously astray.
At the same time, the percentage of listings in San Francisco that have been reduced at least once has ticked up to 36 percent and is poised to continue to climb through the end of the year, with the pace of sales have dropped to a lower six-plus-year low and an uptick in unsold properties being withdrawn from the MLS, most of which are likely to return anew in the spring, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers, other than the most obstinate, by surprise.
From The Chron’s Laura Waxmann, S.F.’s luxury condo market is cooling. Here’s why it might be a good time to buy, twelfth
‘graph:
The whole thing is worth reading just for the specifics about vacancies in some of the city’s luxury, ultra luxury and über luxe condo towers, and how long those units have been vacant.
Unfortunately, it’s not a change in foreign investment that’s driving the market and Compass remains 6-12 months behind the actual trend(s).