The net number of homes on the market in San Francisco, including both condos and single-family homes, ticked up another 6 percent over the past week, driven by an ongoing drop in sales along with an uptick in new listing activity.

As such, while listed inventory levels in San Francisco are still 9 percent lower than at the same time last year, they’re now 33 percent higher than average for this time of the year, nearly 100 percent higher than prior to the pandemic, and 190 percent higher than in 2015, despite misreports of “record low inventory levels” and subsequent misanalyses of the market at hand.

Our models project that inventory levels in San Francisco will continue to climb over the next few weeks to an annual peak in October before trailing off through the end of the year with an increase in reductions and a further drop in average asking prices, which are already down, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.

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