The average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage ticked down 10 basis points (0.10 percentage points) over the past week to 6.32 percent. Or as we outlined last week, “the average 30-year rate should drop around 10-20 basis points over the next week but remain over 6 percent.”
As such, the average 30-year rate is still 165 basis points, or roughly 35 percent, higher than at the same time last year and 367 basis points, or roughly 140 percent, higher than its all-time low of 2.65 percent in early 2021. And while purchase mortgage activity has inched up from a 28-year low, it’s still down 35 percent on a year-over-year basis, despite the recent drop in rates, with pending home sales in San Francisco proper currently down closer to 50 percent.
At the same time, the yield on the 10-year treasury is now holding, with the odds of another rate hike over the next quarter back to even and the probability of an easing having dropped to under 5 percent.