Having dropped to a 25-year low last week, mortgage loan application volume in the U.S. has since ticked down another 2 percent, driven by a 3 percent drop in purchase mortgage activity, which is now down 42 percent on a year-over-year basis and at its lowest level since 2015, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

At the same time, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds (“interest”) rate by at least another full percentage point by the end of the year is still holding at “100 percent” and the share of applications for adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) is holding at just under 13 percent, representing the vast minority share of the market, as has historically been the case.

And while easy to dismiss national trends, as “all real estate is local,” as industry folks like to say, pending home sales in San Francisco have been down over 40 percent on a year-over-year basis since mid-September and purchase activity is currently down…42 percent on a year-over-year basis, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers, other than the most obstinate, by surprise.

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