As we outlined back in March, the 2,053-square-foot, three-bedroom unit #3501 in The Avery at 488 Folsom Street, which was purchased for $3.75 million in July of 2019, features “an extra wide open floor plan that creates a light-filled, airy and elegant lifestyle,” with expansive views, three full bathrooms and parking in the tower’s garage.

Having returned to the market priced at $4.295 million in August of 2020, the “move in ready” Transbay District condo was then listed anew for $4.089 million in April of last year, reduced to $3.995 million last June and then removed from the MLS and official inventory counts last August.

And having been listed anew with an official “1” day on the market for $3.825 million in March, the re-sale of 488 Folsom Street #3501 has now closed escrow with a contract price of $3.75 million, representing total appreciation of 0.0 percent for the luxury unit on an apples-to-apples basis since the third quarter of 2019, but it was officially “within 2 percent of asking!” according to all industry stats. The widely misrepresented Case-Shiller index for “San Francisco” condo values was up 10.7 percent over the same period of time.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by George

    A rare case of two bagholders in succession ! First buyer “only” lost 6-8% (fees + carry costs), second buyer still paid close to $2K per square foot in a dying area…. Desperation or dirty money parking with no care for medium term consequences?

    • Posted by Looking Up

      I know it’s meme-y to act like this area is dead, and certainly there has been some price correction (arguably due to the massive amount of new supply), but have you ever even been to this neighborhood?

      There’s a *ton* more street level activity than there was during the Transbay construction era; sure it’s not Filmore or Valencia but I’d *much* rather live int he east cut now that it has a grocery store, multiple trendy coffee shops, a *great outdoor space on the TBT, a *decent* public outdoor space on the block 4 site, both of SF’s Sweetgreen locations, etc. etc.

      Now before you call me a homer, I moved out of that hood during the pandemic, but going back today, it’s *much* more livable than (the admittedly low bar of) 2018.

      • Posted by Panhandle Pro

        Completely agree. People take progress for granted. Remember when the “East Cut” / Transbay area was parking lots and a really run down bus station? It wasn’t that long ago. The area has improved dramatically. People don’t see the forest from the trees when it comes to the development of SF. It wasn’t all rosy back in the day.

        • Posted by George

          I agree wholeheartedly that the area has improved dramatically since 2010 or so. I am just pointing out that we are on the other side of the curve (down) for SF and the area as whole, at least for the mid term. So maybe paying $2K/sqft is not the best investment strategy right now.

          • Posted by sparky-b

            what about paying $1826/ft? what kind of investment would that be? Cause who cares about 8.7% difference when investing.

    • Posted by civ-e

      for rich people “parking” this amount of money why would anyone choose “luxury” condos instead of a nice detached home in a good neighborhood ten out of ten times, since it’s all but guaranteed that houses with land will appreciate better and you avoid expensive holding costs in the form of HOA.

      • Posted by jenofla

        The only thing I can think of is that it is fairly low-maintenance with a condo, esp if you decide you don’t want to rent it out. It’s secure, maintained, lock and go, etc. With a detached home, you probably have to think of landscaping, graffiti, broken windows, etc. Some HOAs cover insurance and utilities so that’s even more low-maintenance. There are property managers, but in my experience, they aren’t cheap either.

      • Posted by SFRealist

        There are rich people who buy a place for their child when he/she goes to college or their first job. You would much rather put a 23 year old in a condo where no maintenance is required than put them in a house.

  2. Posted by Daniel

    I can’t even imagine the kind of circus we’d have on our hands if Xi didn’t maintain a tight grip on capital in want of leaving PRC. On occasion I wonder what the impact is of what ever makes it through (Looking at AMC as an example).

  3. Posted by Steve

    I really hate tubs right next to the toilet. Hard pass for me. Maybe lesbians don’t care, but a guys piss splashes everywhere if they stand to piss (and I do).

    • Posted by David

      Are we looking at the same pictures/floor plan? How bad a pisser do you have to be to splash into the tub?

      • Posted by Notcom

        Yeah, so many weird references!! This poor guy seems to have as much trouble directing his verbal stream as his…well, you know

    • Posted by sparky-b

      also, if guys can’t control their piss and it splashes everywhere no matter where the toilet is, then isn’t the toilet best near the tub? I guess it would best in the tub, or inside a shower but there isn’t room for that here. Certainly you must not want it between the cabinet and the wall, those are much harder to clean.

  4. Posted by Kevin

    Seller got out unscathed more or less besides holding cost and realtor fee. Could be a lot worse. I suppose right now is a good time to go in and snatch up a condo at a relatively bargain price. This one doesn’t seem too bargain-y. I have to think there is better deals out there right now?

    • Posted by Notcom

      Agreed: transactions always look could be a lot worse when you exclude things – like …ya know…”costs” – that push returns from great>good>”not bad”>”it’s a writeoff”>bad.
      It’s a good time only if you feel the future looks brighter than the relativeevant past; opinion here is mixed, and evolving…daily.

  5. Posted by Dixon Hill

    I’m a bit of a broken record on this subject, but as long as the tech employers have an “office optional” policy, the case for living in this neighborhood is a tough one. This kind of money would go a long way in Russian Hill, Cow Hollow, the Marina, or North Beach…and it wouldn’t be neccessary to wait for the neighborhood to congeal. The *only* reason to buy something like this is if your heart is set on tall and shiny.

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