With the 7-day average number of daily new COVID-19 cases diagnosed in San Francisco having dropped to 82, which is the lowest 7-day average in over 3 months and nearly 40 percent below the first peak back in July, the city’s adjusted case rate, which takes into account testing rates, has dropped to 5.2 cases per 100,000 residents per day, which qualifies San Francisco to move to a less restrictive “Red” tier of risk per the State’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, as we projected last week.
And if the adjusted case rate in San Francisco doesn’t spike over the next week, indoor dining could then resume, and gyms, museums and other indoor attractions could reopen, albeit all at reduced capacities.
That being said, keep in mind that there are still around 100 local hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients and at least 30 people in a local ICU.
And as such, please keep the masks up and transmission down.
UPDATE (2/24): With San Francisco poised for a move into the “Red” next week, the local Health Order which required a 10-day quarantine for people that traveled outside of the Bay Area has been rescinded. And as such, hotel and short-term rental stays of under 10 days for non-Bay Area residents are now allowed to be booked. That being said, “all people living in or moving or travelling to San Francisco are strongly urged to follow the State of California’s Travel Advisory, including refraining from non-essential travel of more than 120 miles from their home or other place of residence and self-quarantining for 10 days after arriving in or returning to San Francisco from other states or countries.”
UPDATE (3/1): Based on our calculations, the adjusted COVID-19 case rate for San Francisco has dropped under 5.0 cases per 100,000 residents per day. And as such, the city should be cleared for its move into a less restrictive “Red” tier of operational risk tomorrow afternoon, a move which would then become effective this Wednesday at 12:01 AM and allow for indoor dining at reduced capacities along with the re-openings of gyms, museums and other indoor attractions at reduced capacities as well.
But please keep in mind that the average testing percent positivity rate in San Francisco is still up at 1.54 percent, which is down from over 5 percent in December but still twice as high as it was in mid-October of last year, prior to the holiday surge.
UPDATE (3/2): San Francisco Drops to the “Red” Tier of Risk
According to tonight’s TV news, SF did NOT move into the red tier, though several other counties did.
No, but our numbers are now good enough to qualify; if they stay good enough to qualify, we’ll move to red tier next week.
You have to have stats for the new tier for two consecutive weeks.
yes, this is dumb. we should be moving soon directly to orange tier based on our numbers. however, well have to stay in red tier for 3 weeks even with significant drop
Lookup hysteresis
The trend, in SF, California, and US as a whole, is clearly heading down. In addition, vaccination is producing result. Vaccine production and vaccination rate is set to multiply in coming weeks. My prediction is the COVID epidemic will recede definitively in just three months.
People’s mind is going to take longer to change. The threat of COVID will remind in their consciousness. The shutdown and personal habit change will continue for weeks and months, even when it is no longer a significant threat in reality.
if we focused on 1st doses and delayed 2nd doses to be given at 8 weeks instead of 4, we would crush this much faster. 1dose provides 85% protection. better to ahve 2 people at 85% than 1 at 94%, and we can still give 2nd but just a bit delayed. what we are doing is unbelievable stupid. more 2nd doses being given now than 1st doses
Biden says U.S. will have enough vaccine for 300 million people by end of July.
there are 210 million adults. im assuming 25% wont take it. That means 158M adults will. We will get there by end of May (at least 1st dose)
Doable. Pfizer and Moderna and set to double vaccine in March. London Breed says SF can give 10,000 shots a day once the supply is available. If it delivers, SF should be fully vaccinated by June. 80% of adult would have gotten first shot by the end of April. It is coming faster than we thought.
People are not prepared for good news. The teacher union has delayed the school reopening so much that the virus would have die off before they are ready to go back to school.
From It’s ‘premature’ and ‘unrealistic’ to think COVID-19 will end soon, WHO warns:
My (admittedly absolute layman’s) prediction is the COVID epidemic will continue apace over the next three months.
UPDATE: With San Francisco poised for a move into the “Red” next week, the local Health Order which required a 10-day quarantine for people that traveled outside of the Bay Area has been rescinded. And as such, hotel and short-term rental stays of under 10 days for non-Bay Area residents are now allowed to be booked.
That being said, “all people living in or moving or travelling to San Francisco are strongly urged to follow the State of California’s Travel Advisory, including refraining from non-essential travel of more than 120 miles from their home or other place of residence and self-quarantining for 10 days after arriving in or returning to San Francisco from other states or countries.”
Someone should really sue the state for the “equity” racial classification used to influence reopening. That’s inconsistent with equal protection under the 14th amendment.
I spy someone who’s not a lawyer.
Incorrect. Lawyer here. Racial classifications are unconstitutional unless they pass strict s rumors which these do not.
Incompetent, irrelevant and immaterial.
“SFR”s comment pertained to the occupation of an unknown party based on hearsay. Motion to strike.
Your comment was out of order as it didn’t address ‘SFR’s comment. Motion to admonish: waved
If this is such a strong case, why hasn’t anyone sued California already?
Because its the middle of a pandemic? Because recalling the Governor can accomplish the same thing faster & cheaper?
Most lawyers are so indoctrinated with leftist culture they forget their Con Law 101. The remaining have much to lose with such a lawsuit.
Why would those few lawyers you mention have anything to lose? If this is a slam dunk case, why wouldn’t they take it?
Don’t you think that the reward they would get for defending the Constitution would be a big helping of cancellation? Sue a deep pocketed corporation you get money and good PR. Sue the state of CA over this and where are the damages?
And how, precisely, would a lawyer be cancelled?
UPDATE: Based on our calculations, the adjusted COVID-19 case rate for San Francisco has dropped under 5.0 cases per 100,000 residents per day. And as such, the city should be cleared for its move into a less restrictive “Red” tier of operational risk tomorrow afternoon, a move which would then become effective this Wednesday at 12:01 AM and allow for indoor dining at reduced capacities along with the re-openings of gyms, museums and other indoor attractions at reduced capacities as well.
But please keep in mind that the average testing percent positivity rate in San Francisco is still up at 1.54 percent, which is down from over 5 percent in December but still twice as high as it was in mid-October of last year, prior to the holiday surge.
UPDATE: San Francisco Drops to the “Red” Tier of Risk