Pace of Home Sales in San Francisco Still DownJune 3, 2020
Having hit its pandemic driven nadir at the end of April, when pending home sales were down nearly 50 percent on a year-over-year basis in San Francisco, the pace of sales started to rebound in mid-May.
But the current pace of contract signings is still down over 20 percent versus the same time last year while listing activity has fully rebounded.
And as such, inventory levels are not only running at a 9-year seasonal high but rapidly approaching a 9-year high in the absolute as well.
Comments from Plugged-In Readers
This is news?
Down only 20, from 50, and this is the frame? oddball. That’s not the story here.
Inventory not withstanding, I feel like that improvement points to a quick rebound.
Really? 20% is a staggering number and the economic impacts of the pandemic have barely registered yet. Rents are plummeting as well. This is just the beginning of a substantial decline in SF real estate values.
You’re not taking into context the move from 50 to 20. If next month it’s less than 20, that would also be staggering, albeit oppositely.
And you’re not taking into account the pent up demand and delayed closings from the -50% month that happened in the -20% month and that still didn’t make up entirely for the lack of demand and only brought it to -20%. Next month just as easily could be the average of -35%.
You’re attempting to argue with a completely fabricated global pandemic pent up demand metric. You couldn’t quantify that concept if the reward was a covid-19 vaccine, dude. How about this? Consider that interstate and even intrastate, let alone international buyers, have been completely out of the mix the entire spring, and the market still performed at this surprising level.
Inventory at decade high, basically negative rates, and ‘activity’ ONLY down 20% YoY?!
And wasn’t the whole story in recent years of little supply and little activity already!?
And now prices are DOWN and activity is DOWN? Sounds like real estate is completely in this new world …
A giant meteor could be hurtling straight towards earth, and realtors would be saying it’s a great time to buy.
In that scenario it actually would be, right? Get in a sweet pad And enjoy life well beyond your means and not worry about cause it would Be the least of your problems
Thank you for demonstrating the veracity of Upton Sinclair’s most famous quote.
Never underestimate a commenter’s capacity to invoke the Godwin’s Law of real estate.
Goodwin’s Law marks the end of useful conversation.
Upton’s quote: ““It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Should be the beginning of any conversion about real estate. If you don’t focus first and foremost on how people in a deal are getting paid, you won’t understand their motivations and will get taken for a ride.
And who draws a “salary” in real estate? A regular payment, based upon perpetuating a myth of high prices … who would that be in the context of real estate? Sorry, but I find the axiom to be woefully out of place here. Commissions are not salary. Development exits are not salary. There are many ways to go about doing the business of real estate but perpetuating a singular concept ad infinitum will not equate to “salary,” long term. Adaptation must take place. So no, I don’t like this great quote about labor inequalities to be so poorly utilized all the time. When I see it, I know the conversation has run its course. That’s why Godwin’s.
“It is foolish to be convinced without evidence, but it is equally foolish to refuse to be convinced by real evidence.”
Upton said other things, too.
It’s out of line to bring up Godwin’s law here.
Why? Was there no there there ?
It was out of line to bring up Sinclair to my comment, actually. Which then triggered the Godwin one.
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